Projected outcome for Mavericks possible final game against Memphis Grizzlies

It's do or die for the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night with the franchise set for its second NBA play-in game against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavericks kept their season alive earlier this week with a road win over the Sacramento Kings, and they'll need a similar performance to dispatch Memphis.

One thing worth noting coming into the matchup is the health of Grizzlies star Ja Morant. It's likely that Morant will play tonight but he won't be at 100% after spraining his ankle in a loss to the Golden State Warriors earlier this week. It'll be interesting to see how Morant responds three days after the injury. He didn't practice on Thursday.

Dallas went 2-2 against Memphis during the regular season. However, all of those games were played by January 9.

Obviously, there have been a lot of changes for both franchises during that time. The Mavericks traded Luka Doncic and lost Kyrie Irving to a season-ending ACL tear. Memphis surprisingly fired head coach Taylor Jenkins at the end of March, compiling a 3-7 record since the move, including six straight losses.

Leading up to the game, CBS Sports's Ross Kelly used SportLine's model to project the final result. The Mavericks are predicted to keep the contest within striking distance before ultimately falling 116-112.

"After a 14-point road win over the Kings on Wednesday, the Mavs are now 7-3 with Anthony Davis in the lineup. Also, unlike Memphis, Dallas' best player is healthy as Ja Morant was forced to exit Tuesday's loss to the Warriors with a turned ankle," Kelly wrote. "Morant is listed as questionable and will clearly be at less than 100% for the Grizzlies' most important game of the season. Him being compromised certainly hurts Memphis' offense, and the team doesn't necessarily have defensive strengths to hang its hat on."

"The Grizzlies allow the sixth-most points per game, the second-most free throws per game, and have been undoubtedly the league's worst team versus the spread over the last two months," Kelly continued. "Since the All-Star break, Memphis has covered in just 24.1% of games, which is by far the worst cover percentage over that span."

As Kelly pointed out, the Grizzlies have been piling up fouls and struggling to cover the spread since the NBA All-Star break. That could end up being an advantage for the Mavericks as Dallas converted on 24/26 free-throw attempts during its last victory against the Kings.

The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies are scheduled to tip-off at 9:30 p.m. on ESPN.

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