NBA Tank Tracker: Where Each Draft Lottery Team Stands in Race to the Bottom

Tank season is in full swing.

As the NBA heads into the fourth quarter of its regular season, contenders are jockeying for playoff positioning while the squads at the bottom of the standings play for the opposite: Fewer wins and more ping pong balls in the draft lottery. Tanking is a hot-button issue across the NBA, with commissioner Adam Silver’s recent acknowledgment that the hush-hush practice has reached never-before-seen levels.

The league recently levied six-figure fines to the Jazz and Pacers for “conduct detrimental to the league,” which came in the form of sitting top players and player participation policy violations. Silver plans to take action and enact anti-tanking rules by next season. He recently informed all 30 general managers of potential changes, like a freeze on lottery odds at a specific date, odds based on two-year records and expanding the draft lottery to include all play-in tournament teams.

Representatives from all 30 teams gathered on a Zoom call last week to discuss the tanking crisis. One top team executive told Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix that the call was an “idea gathering” exercise. While Silver appears committed to new anti-tanking rules, any potential changes to the current system are in their infancy. New anti-tanking rules or even a fully revitalized draft system could go in any direction, with plenty of work ahead and buy-in needed to enact change.

Since anti-tanking measures have yet to arrive, this year’s draft, headlined by Darryn Peterson of Kansas, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Duke’s Cameron Boozer, will follow the system we all know and love (to hate). And for the remainder of the regular season, teams that have already punted toward next year and beyond will look to put themselves in the best possible position for May’s NBA draft lottery. Just not too obviously.

Here’s where the race to the bottom currently stands as we verge on March:

Current NBA draft lottery standings and odds

Each of the NBA’s bottom-three teams will have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 52.1% chance of remaining in the top four picks. Although odds are the same at the bottom, there’s still an incentive to finish with the worst record. The team with the worst record can drop to the fifth pick, while the team with the third-worst record can fall as low as seven. Think of the prize for the worst record as an added cushion should the lottery go sideways and teams with lower odds jump ahead.

The worst five teams are within 4.5 games of each other, which means there is room for considerable movement as the regular season reaches its conclusion. The Pelicans controversially traded their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Hawks at last year’s draft to acquire standout rookie big man Derik Queen. Although New Orleans is near the bottom of the standings, it has no incentive to keep losing. Atlanta’s front office certainly hopes the deal results in a shiny pick at the top of the draft, however.

Similarly, Indiana made a lottery gamble at the deadline when the Pacers traded for star center Ivica Zubac. Without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers have the second-worst record in the NBA. If the Pacers’ pick lands somewhere from No. 5 to No. 9, it would go to the Clippers. With Indiana in position to add an impact player at the top of the draft, the ping pong balls still need to bounce their way to ultimately keep the selection.

With plenty at stake over the final 25 or so games of each team’s season, here’s a look at the current lottery picture and pick odds based on where all teams in the mix currently sit. Check back as the season moves along for an up-to-date look at the latest lottery movement.

Records are as of Feb. 23, at the conclusion of all games, and pick odds are via Tankathon.

Pick	Team	Record	Top-four pick odds	No. 1 pick odds
1	Sacramento Kings	13–46	52.1%	14%
2	Indiana Pacers	15–43	52.1%	14%
3	Brooklyn Nets	15–41	52.1%	14%
4	Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)	16–42 (NOP’s record)	48.1%	12.5%
5	Washington Wizards	16–40	42.1%	10.5%
6	Utah Jazz	18–40	37.2%	9%
7	Dallas Mavericks	20–36	32%	7.5%
8	Memphis Grizzlies	21-35	26.3%	6%
9	Chicago Bulls	24–34	20.3%	4.5%
10	Milwaukee Bucks	24–31	13.9%	3%
11	Charlotte Hornets	27–31	9.4%	2%
12	Oklahoma City Thunder (via L.A. Clippers)	27–30 (LAC’s record)	7.1%	1.5%
13	San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta)	28–31 (ATL’s record)	4.8%	1%
14	Portland Trail Blazers	28–30	2.4%	0.5%

Remaining strength of schedule for lottery teams

Front offices looking toward the draft would rather have a more difficult schedule to stack losses and subsequently increase lottery odds. Don’t tell that to the players on the court, however. No matter the strange starting fives we might see down the final stretch, as key players on lowly teams are shut down, any group of NBA players plays to win.

Some players you’ll see over the last part of the season are on 10-day contracts, fighting for their jobs with the opportunity given. That said, the majority of teams in position for a top draft pick won’t have the personnel to win most nights.

Here’s a look at the remaining strength of schedule for all lottery teams. All data is according to Tankathon, and strength of schedule rankings include the entire NBA (yes, playoff teams, too). Remember, a higher strength of schedule—more games against strong teams and fewer “tank-offs” against fellow bottom-tier opponents—is good for lottery teams. For example, the last-place Kings have a particularly easy remaining schedule, while the Pacers have a much tougher schedule that’s more favorable for tanking.

Pick position	Team	Remaining strength of schedule (across entire NBA)	Number of games remaining
1	Sacramento Kings	29th	23
2	Indiana Pacers	5th	24
3	Brooklyn Nets	10th	26
4	New Orleans Pelicans (ATL owns pick)	23rd	24
5	Washington Wizards	4th	26
6	Utah Jazz	21st	24
7	Dallas Mavericks	11th	26
8	Memphis Grizzlies	6th	26
9	Chicago Bulls	13th	24
10	Milwaukee Bucks	16th	27
11	Charlotte Hornets	20th	24
12	Los Angeles Clippers (OKC owns pick)	28th	25
13	Atlanta Hawks (SAS owns pick)	26th	23
14	Portland Trail Blazers	30th	24

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