An early look at the Pacers rotation as free agent moratorium ends

The Indiana Pacers haven't made a ton of moves this off-season, and yet it will still be a brand new team when October rolls around.

The return of Haliburton. The full season of Zubac. The addition of Oubre Jr. And the hope of a much healthier rotation overall: These are the things that give Pacer fans excitement for the season ahead. It's only July, and things can still change. For now, let's take an early look at how the rotation and playing time could shake out.

Point guard-

Tyrese Haliburton is expected to be ready to rock from the opening tip of the season. The last time he suited up, he was averaging 33.6 minutes per game. I expect that number to dip a little bit as he works his way back, before eventually playing those minutes again on a nightly basis. I could also see Haliburton sitting on the occasional back-to-back, but the real question is how cautious the team will be with their star for the other bumps and bruises over the course of a long season. They may play it safe with him at times, but I expect the same type of player with huge numbers by early 2027, if not sooner.

TJ McConnell will still be the primary backup, although his minutes have declined for five straight years. I expect him to be around the 16-17 minutes per night, when healthy. Andrew Nembhard will get some time at the one as well, especially when Haliburton or McConnell miss any action.

Quenton Jackson had a solid season this past year and could also see some time at the one.
Braden Smith will likely see a lot of action for the Noblesville Boom in his first season. It may take multiple injuries on a given night for Smith to see action for the Pacers, but that's also a scenario that isn't all that unlikely in today's NBA.

Shooting Guard-

Andrew Nembhard will slide back over to the two with Hali's return. Nembhard had a great season at the one, averaging nearly 17 points and 8 assists in that role. Playing a little more off ball will hopefully unleash him on the defensive end once again. I expect Nembhard to be top-two in minutes played.

Here's where things get interesting for the Pacers. Do they see Kelly Oubre Jr. playing more at the backup two, or the backup three? If you look at how the roster is constructed, and how they've operated in the past, it's likely something that can change on a nightly basis. Some nights, you could see Obi Toppin playing backup five which allows Oubre and Jarace Walker to both play more minutes together. It's also possible the Pacers view those two playing together anyway which would mean less of Ben Sheppard.

I expect Oubre Jr. to play around 30 minutes per night, which is where Bennedict Mathurin ended up as the 6th man for this team two years ago. As for Ben Sheppard, I expect him to still have a role for much of the year, but his minutes will decline to around 17-18 minutes per night.

Small Forward-

Contrary to some opinions on X, Aaron Nesmith will still be the deserved starter for this group at the three. Last year, it was a career-high 29.7 minutes per night for Nesmith, but I would expect this year's average to fall more in line with the 23-24 season, coming in around 28 minutes per night.

As mentioned, Oubre Jr. will see some time at the three, as will Jarace Walker. Unless Walker is involved in a trade, I think we'll see a solid role for him, coming in around 24 minutes a game.

Johnny Furphy is coming back from injury and figures to be in the mix when healthy, while Jalen Slawson could be a dark horse for this rotation.

Power Forward-

Pascal Siakam is back and ready to lead for another season. He played 33.2 minutes per game last year, but they were also able to limit him to 62 games. The previous year, he was at 32.7 minutes which is a little closer to what I think he will end up averaging this coming season.

Obi Toppin was limited to just 24 games last season, which only added to the crazy year of injuries this team had to experience. I expect an uptick in minutes for Toppin between the backup four, and occasional time at the five. He could approach his career-high in minutes from 2023-2024, which was around 21.1 minutes per game.

Center-

It's time for Ivica Zubac to shine as a Pacer. Since he was limited after the trade, a lot of fans still don't realize what he's capable of with this group. I expect 30-32 minutes from Zu, with monster numbers.

It made sense to pick up Micah Potter's contract, as he and Jay Huff will give the Pacers some options and depth behind Zubac. I think those guys will end up averaging similar minutes while sharing roles on a given night, and will both be around the 17-18 per game played mark.

Overall depth-

On paper, this team appears to have the depth to compete at the highest level. The Pacers are at their best when they keep bringing in production at every position and are relentless for 48 minutes. No team could survive the amount of injuries they had a season ago, however, and they are hoping for a lot more luck in the health department in the season ahead. This roster can also allow Rick Carlisle and the coaching staff to try different combinations with multiple options for closing lineups.

If they can stay healthy, expect another big year in Indy.

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