Defining Damian Lillard's Expectations For Blazers Return

A franchise legend returns to Portland's lineup in 2026-27. What should we expect when Damian Lillard's Hall of Fame-bound story continues in a few months?

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard celebrates with forward Robert Covington (23) during the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Ask the optimistic Portland Trail Blazers fan, and they’ll tell you that the return of Damian Lillard — plus a trade for a star swingman of some sort — is all that the franchise needs to begin thinking about championship contention again.

After all, this combination would leave Portland with the rare luxury of an All-Star trio in a perfect world. The only problem: worlds have never been “perfect” for those in black-and-red threads along the Pacific Northwest.

Lillard has made a Hall of Fame-bound career out of outpunching his weight, and this writer has never been one to doubt him. But, as Lillard battles both on-court opponents and the yet-to-be-defeated “Father Time,” it is, at least, of some interest to see what the NBA’s history says about post-Achilles tear injuries, especially for soon-to-be 36-year-olds.

What Hoops History Says About Stars Post-Achilles Injury

Shaqís OGs guard Damian Lillard of the Milwaukee Bucks high fives forward Kevin Durant of the Sacramento Kings after a play during the 2025 NBA All Star Game at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

For a longtime hoops observer, the ageless Kevin Durant stands as the first thought. Almost a one-of-a-kind “exception” to the rule, Durant suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon at age 30 in the 2019 NBA Finals. What followed? He took a full season off — a formula Lillard followed in 2025-26 — and returned with enough brilliance to leave observers wondering, “Is he even better than before?”

If Durant wore a shoe one size smaller, it might’ve been the type of story that ended in a legacy-defining championship. But, how remarkable is it to consider that Durant’s three most efficient seasons — in terms of eFG% — all happened post-Achilles rupture? At ages 34, 32, and 36.

Lillard supporters likely also categorized Jayson Tatum’s return as one for the win column; by the end of 2025-26, Boston’s superstar looked to be at least 85, 90 percent of who he once was. That is, before a different leg injury forced him to the sidelines for Boston’s biggest game of the season.

A peek through the NBA’s history books to see the rest of the players who returned from Achilles injuries isn’t necessarily inspiring. The first bullet point until that final heading, “What’s the usual outcome for Achilles injuries” is probably the most gulp-worthy. But, here’s the positive: modern medicine and rehab have brightened the outlook in comparison to what we thought a few decades ago.

Creating Realistic Expectations for Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard talks with Dallas Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd after a game at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

If one had to make a single, bet-your-life-on it decision for Lillard’s 2026-27 season, here’s what it will be: Year 14 will be the best catch-and-shoot season of his career.

The NBA’s tracking numbers were already beginning to head in that area. 2024-25’s season in Milwaukee offered drive-and-kick opportunities between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard in abundance, and the All-Star point guard delivered, with elite percentages in terms of catch-and-shoot eFG (61.5 percent) and 3-point accuracy (41.5 percent on 205 attempts).

The only season in which he was better: that historically underrated 2020-21 season, in which he was No. 3 on Most Valuable Player ladders at the All-Star break. That year, Lillard’s eFG (67.4 percent) and 3-point hit rate (45.4 percent on 154 attempts) helped tell the story of a Mount Rushmore season in his career.

And, the identity’s already been established in Portland: last season, only two teams drove on more possessions than the Blazers did (58.1 times per game), and that led to a tie for the second-most assists per game (5.6).

In 2025-26, Deni Avdija ran drive-and-kick plays at the league’s highest rate for an offense that ranked 28th in 3-point accuracy.

This year, such plays will include a three-time Three Point Shootout champion. For a time in his recovery, it was probably all that Lillard could do. And thus, such muscle memory figures to benefit him immensely; he discussed such possibilities during his exit interview.

What’s fascinating, though, is imagining how Lillard’s other signature in-game staples translate post-Achilles. As we’ve already noted, the Blazers’ superstar is probably the greatest deep-range shooter the NBA has ever seen. Interestingly enough, though, it was Durant who offered a take on how Lillard could find it difficult to replicate such success:

It isn’t what Portland fans want to hear, but having dealt with the injury, Durant’s opinion holds merit. Lillard’s résumé and body of work make any sort of doubt unwarranted for now, but it’ll certainly be food for thought.

Why It’s Fine if Lillard Isn’t The Exact Same Player

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard prepares to pass the ball in the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

So, back to that “perfect world” scenario: if Portland does pull off a trade for, say, Jaylen Brown or, ironically enough, find themselves in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes, it immediately adjusts the offensive pecking order.

The 1A-1B would likely be Avdija and Brown, with Lillard potentially being the type of “1C,” third option-type hybrid that, on any given night, could hover around 10 to 15 points, but could be just as much of a threat to pop off for a 30-point game.

If nothing else, it could give Lillard a perfect “ramp-up” period of sorts, easing any pressure on anyone unwisely expecting him to immediately be “the guy,” while keeping his 82-game outlook — and beyond — much more risk-free. The fact that rumors swirled about his return this postseason certainly stood as a positive sign. And, there's already budding chemistry.

As a hoops historian, it’s difficult to not think about some of the celebrated basketball theories, such as Bill Simmons’ idea about what happens when players reach certain minutes and games played thresholds. 

Lillard’s an interesting sample, in that he’s been the guy, and a high-usage player for his entire career. The 32,000 regular-season minutes, 900 games played, and a usage percentage above 28 percent has only been done by eight players in NBA history. And, although that stat is extremely specific, it is compiled of many Hall of Fame talents who had high-profile declines in their later years.

In Lillard’s case, the hunch is that 2026-27, at least, works out just right. This writer’s prediction is that —  as he’s always done — he’ll hover around a 20-point scoring average with career-highs in some areas and struggles in others. But more importantly, he stays healthy throughout, and ideally, puts himself in position to help deliver Portland’s longest-running season since 2019.

And if the “basketball gods” love a feelgood story, it’s arguable that there isn’t a better one than the one Lillard could have next season.