Why Deni Avdija Should Still Be Blazers Offensive Nucleus

Avdija had a career year for the Portland Trail Blazers last year, averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game, achieving All-Star status.

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija reacts after being fouled and scoring a basket against the San Antonio Spurs during game four of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Following the best regular season in five years, the Portland Trail Blazers summer proved as eventful. Stuffed with stimulating and demoralizing headlines alike, there is no shortage of team storylines entering the 2026-27 NBA season. 

Damian Lillard’s return, Ja Morant’s arrival, Micah Nori’s contract situation, Scoot Henderson’s lack of an extension, Shaedon Sharpe’s knee injury and the contentious negotiations between Tom Dundon and Portland city councilors has consumed most of the Blazers oxygen. 

Uncertainty invites conversation; it is far more interesting to speculate the guard rotation, whether the Blazers would ever really leave Portland, or if Yang Hansen’s performance in the FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian Qualifiers indicates how NBA-ready he is.

As a result, other items get cast aside, like Deni Avdija. There’s fewer — if any — question marks, with most anticipating Avdija to continue being a pretty good NBA player.

Coming off a career year in which he made his first All-Star appearance and averaged 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game, one might expect a bit more chatter around Avdija. Conventional wisdom points toward a slight regression this year, as often follows after a massive leap, explaining the disinterest from talking heads. Surely he is not expected to match last year’s production, not with Lillard and Morant coming in.

But maybe he should be. Or rather, maybe the Blazers top priority should be maximizing Avdija’s talents, catering to him above anyone else, including the aforementioned former All-Star point guards. Maybe Portland should continue to keep Avdija at the forefront, ensuring he not only sniffs his numbers from last year, but surpasses them.

Why not? Avdija is the safest long-term bet — he’s not injury-prone or 36 years old. He’s not undersized at his position. He’s not a player the Blazers are waiting for to bloom. And, at just 25, he by far maintains the highest upside of any player currently on the roster. Avdija’s 24/6/6 stat line last season made him one of three players in the league with such averages, a club that included Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic.

He is not the star the Blazers hoped for after Lillard’s departure; he is better, a prototypical lengthy forward capable of orchestrating the offense and finding open teammates when the defense enters his orbit. If we trace his trajectory, Avdija’s almost guaranteed to keep improving — the next leap, however, will only arrive under opportune conditions. The numbers make that clear, steadily rising across six years.

Offensive engine

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija reacts against the Phoenix Suns during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Blazers were clearly at their best with the ball in Avdija’s hands last year. There is no reason that cannot be replicated. His usage rate shot up to 30.9 percent last year, the highest among all forwards. Boasting a remarkable 49 percent assisted rate percentage on all shot attempts, Avdija was first among forwards (minimum 1,000 minutes), topping the likes of LeBron James, Paolo Banchero, Jimmy Butler and Jalen Johnson, per Cleaning The Glass. 

This implies that Avdija is pretty damn good playing off the dribble, with less than half of his made shots being assisted on. And it’s not an outlier, instead displayed growth, improving every year since his rookie season. 

However, despite Avdija’s shot creation off the bounce, it is not the most intriguing aspect to his game. No, that honor belongs to his aptitude and inclination toward creating for others.

Obviously, the higher usage rate a player has the higher their assist percentage will be. Avdija achieved a career-best assist percentage last season of 31.5 percent, over a 12-percent jump from the previous year, placing him in the 96th percentile among forwards. But that tells only a fraction of the story.

Per Cleaning The Glass, a player’s assist-to-usage ratio estimates how pass-first a player truly is by comparing their assist percentage to their usage. Avdija’s 94th percentile among forwards is splendid, and providing further context begins to emphasize the beauty in his playmaking.

For example, Lillard has only once in his career recorded a higher assist-to-usage ratio than Avdija, despite logging eight seasons with more assists per game than Avdija accomplished last year. LeBron, meanwhile, has nine seasons of either equal to or less than Avdija’s recent ratio, per Cleaning The Glass.

Of course, it would be foolish to put Avdija and LeBron in the same category. Avdija is nowhere near the passing savant, though he is proven at the very least to be just as willing to swing the rock.

Room to grow

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija passes the ball to center Robert Williams III as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic defends in the fourth quarter at Ball Arena. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Avdija’s potential is intoxicating, but there are some warts that need to be cleared. His lackluster 31.8 percent 3-point percentage on six attempts per game from last year is an issue. He shot 37.4 percent on 3.1 attempts his final year in Washington and 36.5 percent on 4.8 attempts two seasons ago, massive developments compared to his first three years in the league. 

The drop is likely due to his infatuation with above-the-break 3-pointers, sinking 108 out of 346 (31.2 percent) at 5.2 attempts per game according to HoopsJunkie. He also remained a tad too eager to let it fly following an offensive rebound, shooting 32.9 percent from 3-point range on second-chance opportunities, per HoopsJunkie.

If he is willing to find the corner a bit more and settle down on the chucking — paired with receiving better looks from an attacking Morant — he should return to form from beyond the arc. A better 3-point percentage would also raise his true shooting percentage, which was a pallid 57.8 percent last year according to HoopsJunkie.

An Avdija with a consist deep ball should be worth salivating over, literally and figuratively. If the Blazers prioritize him, he well may ascend from All-Star to superstar status, becoming a league fixture for the decade to come.