Popular Warriors-LeBron Leverage Theory Has One Huge Flaw

Over the last few weeks, many have shared the sentiment that LeBron James is using the Golden State Warriors as leverage to get what he wants.

The latest to popularize that theory was The Ringer's Bill Simmons.

"And now it's pretty clear they [the Warriors] were being used as leverage as LeBron goes back to Cleveland," Simmons said Thursday on his podcast.

Could James and agent Rich Paul be stringing the Warriors along so that they ruin their offseason by waiting for him instead of making other moves?

It's possible, though I doubt that. But that's not what I'm here to discuss.

What doesn't make sense is how James and Paul are benefitting from the threat of the Warriors in the James sweepstakes.

This Is Not a Classic Leverage Situation

At first, the leverage theory had more to do with Anthony Davis than James. The theory was that both Klutch clients wanted a) to get paid and b) to be in a good situation next year, and the Warriors could provide that by trading for Davis, immediately giving Davis a max extension AND making corresponding moves to give James the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

In a sense, Klutch would be using the Warriors' interest in James as leverage to fix Davis' bad situation.

I had my doubts that there was ever a coordinated attempt by James and Davis to end up on the Warriors together, but at least that theory made sense.

The more recent leverage theory is that James always wanted to go to the Cavaliers, but he needed the threat of the Warriors to force the Cavs to do something more for him.

Essentially, James would be telling the Cavs, "I will sign with the Warriors unless you give me [insert James perk here]."

The problem is figuring out what he could want the Cavs to do that needed the threat of the Warriors for them to do it.

For example, James could say that the Warriors could easily gain access to the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($15 million), so the Cavs must make salary-dumping trades to open that up for him so that they can match Golden State's offer.

The Cavs would have to salary-dump a ton of money to have the NTMLE, likely including trading Max Strus and draft capital for nothing, and that would substantially hurt the roster.

Or they could release James Harden's cap hold so they lose him for nothing and then pay James the NTMLE. But that hurts their roster even more than a Strus trade would.

If the Cavs move mountains so that James can sign for $15 million, then Simmons' theory could be true. But when James inevitably signs for either his veteran minimum salary of $3.9 million or the taxpayer mid-level exception salary of $6.1 million, there will be no Warriors-leverage theory that makes sense.

What would make more sense is that James is valuing championship contention over a few extra million dollars, as has been reported.

What's Likely Actually Happening

I believe the reporting that James was expecting to re-sign with the Lakers this offseason, only to be surprised that they didn't want him back.

The fact that he's destined for such a small salary from any of his suitors suggests he had no coordinated plan coming into free agency.

I think James is actually, truly not sure what he wants to do. He doesn't benefit from telling any team no, so he's leaving about 10 suitors in the dark.

My guess is the Warriors were never his top choice. That certainly could be criticized, as the Dubs might have gone after some now-signed targets with better offers had James told them he was going elsewhere. Hell, maybe Draymond Green would have opted in to his $27.7 million player option if James had told the Warriors he's not coming immediately, so maybe Green could be annoyed by James' indecision.

But I don't think there was malicious intent to ruin any team's offseason.

The 41-year-old has a tough decision. The Cavs, Heat and 76ers all have championship-caliber rosters he can push over the top. But they all have flaws.

The Cavs would potentially have Harden, who is not a great fit with any star who should have the ball in his hands to maximize his value like James. The Heat are short on three-and-D players to complement James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Joel Embiid's health could kill the 76ers' chances like it has so many times.

He'll likely choose one of those three, and the Warriors will be left with having to run it back with a nearly identical roster as they had last season. Or at least they'll make the excuse that they were forced into this.

The Warriors have had no restriction on making a big trade for the last couple of months. They still can go after Trey Murphy III or Michael Porter Jr. So even if they say James messed up their offseason, that shouldn't be a good enough excuse for total inaction.

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