Warriors-Suns Play-In Game Prediction: Can Curry Author Another Masterpiece?

Coming off a comeback win over the Clippers in their first play-in game, the Golden State Warriors will take on the Phoenix Suns on Friday at Mortgage Matchup Center in their second play-in game.

This one decides who gets the eighth seed to take on the Thunder in the first round.

Golden State is 3-1 against Phoenix this season, but with injured Warriors Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Quinten Post having played 282 minutes in those games, it feels like there isn't much to take away from them.

History of Lower Seeds in Second Play-In Game

This is the sixth year of the play-in tournament, which means entering Friday there have been 10 winners of the second play-in game in history.

In those 10 games, the ninth or 10th seed won four times.

Of the four 10th seeds that played in the second play-in game, only the 2025 Heat won.

This data suggests the Suns have an advantage, which makes sense considering the lower seed in the second play-in game will always be playing its second consecutive road game.

The travel alone should make the home team fresher, but in this case, the Suns have an extra rest day as well, having played on Tuesday against the Blazers.

Suns Have Defended Curry Well This Season

In three games against the Suns this season, Curry shot 21-of-55 (38.2 percent) from the field and 11-of-32 from three (34.4 percent).

He'll likely see a lot of Jordan Goodwin, who ranks in the 93rd percentile in Dunks and Threes' Defensive EPM.

The Suns also have above-average defenders in Collin Gillespie and Dillon Brooks who will surely match up on Curry as well.

But ultimately, it takes a collective effort to slow down Curry, and the Suns are better equipped for that than the Clippers were when Curry had 35 points on Wednesday.

The Suns finished the regular season ninth in defensive rating, per NBA.com. The Clippers finished 18th.

Turnover Battle Will Be Key

Both of these teams have turnover issues, but the Suns are just a bit better at taking care of the ball.

Both of these teams make up for it by creating turnovers, but the Suns are just a bit better at forcing them.

Golden State had 20 turnovers against a Clippers team that doesn't force nearly as many as the Suns.

All of these stats point to the Warriors losing the turnover battle. They made up for it against LA with 19 threes. That will be difficult to replicate against a better Suns defense.

Booker, Brooks Looking to Exploit Dubs' Depleted Wing Depth

Devin Booker has averaged 33.7 points against the Warriors this season, and those three games came with Moody on the floor. Moody is the Warriors' best wing defender, but he's out for the season.

You can expect De'Anthony Melton to draw Booker often, and that's not necessarily a bad thing for Golden State, as Melton is a very good defender. But if Booker uses his size (6'5") to attack Melton (6'2") in the paint, the Warriors might not have an answer.

Brooks mostly had his way with the Warriors defense this season, as he averaged 23.3 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field and 45.0 percent from three.

Expect Draymond Green to match up with Brooks often. Get your popcorn ready.

Warriors Could Be Due for Letdown

It might take another Curry masterpiece for the Warriors to advance, and I'm guessing it isn't coming.

I wonder how he's doing phsyically after playing 36 intense minutes. Even if he's healthy, the Suns are better equipped to contain him.

To some degree, I wonder if the Warriors are due for a letdown.

Green played 35 minutes with rugged defense on Wednesday. How much does he have in the tank?

Kristaps Porzingis was seen breathing hard in his 28 minutes, and now he's listed as questionable with ankle soreness. Can he put together a second consecutive great performance?

This isn't to say the Warriors have no route to victory. I could see the Suns going cold, especially if Melton contains Booker, and it would not be surprising if the Dubs win the rebounding battle, as I laid out here.

But if they don't get their best from Curry, Green and Porzingis, it might not matter.

Prediction: Suns by 8

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