Week 11 Visionary Plays: Bold Fantasy and DFS Predictions
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Maybe it’s not visionary to start arguably the best quarterback in fantasy football, but I am starting him without any hesitation on Sunday. What makes him particularly special is that his ceiling is higher than anyone else at the position—by about 10 points. Start him in all lineups, formats, and leagues in what should be a high-scoring game against the Texans.
Drew Brees, Saints
It was shocking to see Brees get sacked six times at home last week against Atlanta. Expect a considerable rebound, as Tampa Bay does not generate a huge pass rush, and even more importantly, their secondary has been decimated. I don't usually love starting Brees on the road, but I cannot picture any way where he doesn’t throw for 250+ yards and at least 3 TDs.
Derek Carr, Raiders
This play is certainly more of a seasonal one than DFS. For DFS purposes, I worry that Carr will be a bit chalky, and I can see other players ending up with better statistics. However, in seasonal leagues, Carr is the ideal person to plug and play as he gets the hapless Bengals who let up 49 points last week against Baltimore. While I don’t foresee the same score, Carr should have a floor of at least 240 yards and a TD.
Tom Brady, Patriots
Isn't it amazing that we tend to overlook Tom Brady? He's only the greatest QB ever to play the game! The Patriots have had two weeks to recover after getting beat handily by the Ravens, and I think that they will come out and have a great game against the Eagles. The Eagles can get picked apart through the air, and I believe that is precisely what Brady will do on Sunday. Look for a game of 270+ passing yards, and at least 2-3 TD passes.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs, Raiders
This matchup might be too good to be true. The Raiders, who love to run the ball, get to play the Bengals, who cannot stop the run. The biggest beneficiary of this is Jacobs, who is going to see the ball at least 25 times this game. Making things even better is that the Raiders are playing at home, and the game is the highest total on the schedule, according to Las Vegas. The stars are aligned for Jacobs to have a huge day.
Devin Singletary, Bills
For those of you who follow me, you know some of the things that I look for in my visionary plays: 1) recency bias, 2) revenge narrative, and 3) hometown narrative. The hometown narrative can either be where a player is originally from (like Gronk when he played in Buffalo) or where he went to college. In this case, Singletary is the greatest RB in Florida Atlantic history, and FAU is just a quick drive down the Florida Turnpike away from Miami. Singletary barely touched the ball against the Browns; I can guarantee that won't happen this week as the Bills look to get him at least 15-20 touches against the Dolphins.
Brian Hill, Falcons
The Panthers run defense has been one of the most generous in the league (they are statistically the third-worst in the league), and Hill should have around 20 touches. Hill also has surprisingly decent hands out of the backfield, so I think he is equally valuable in standard and PPR formats.
Tevin Coleman, 49ers
If you play in a standard format, Tevin Coleman might be the top RB play of the week. Matt Breida is expected to be out with an injury, and Coleman will split carries with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, neither of whom are in the same class as Coleman. Even better, is that the 49ers are playing the Cardinals, a team that is extremely generous to opposing offenses, so I fully expect Coleman to find the end zone at least once in this game.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas, Saints
In all my years of covering fantasy football, I have learned that nothing is a sure thing. However, if I were ever to use that term, I would use it this week when it comes to Michael Thomas. The Bucs cut CB Vernon Hargreaves earlier this week, and CB M.J. Stewart is also doubtful with a sprained knee. Even CB Carlton Davis is dealing with a hip injury and is questionable. So basically, the Bucs have NO ONE to cover Thomas, which should mean that Brees throws to him on virtually every passing down, which would give him 12-15 receptions for well over 150 receiving yards.
Julian Edelman, Patriots
Edelman represents a tough matchup for the Eagles who have no answer for him in the slot. Look for Edelman to continue to be Tom Brady’s first passing option and etch him into all PPR lineups for at least 18 points and maybe more.
Terry McLaurin, Redskins
It feels like it’s been weeks since I have recommended starting McLaurin, but with the Redskins playing the Jets at home in Week 11 now might be the perfect time to use him again. The Jets struggle with speed receivers, as we saw Giants WR Darius Slayton have his way with their secondary last week. The Redskins should be better on offense as RB Derrius Guice is expected to play, and QB Dwayne Haskins has had another week to work in practice. McLaurin is never going to be a huge threat to put up a multiple TD day, but he should be good for at least 80 receiving yards and a TD in this contest.
Curtis Samuel, Panthers
Recently, it’s been fellow Panthers WR D.J. Moore who has dominated, catching back-to-back 100-yard games. But this week, I think that Samuel breaks out and has the better start, mainly because he will see coverage from CB Isaiah Oliver, who might be the worst cover CB currently playing in the NFL. If Kyle Allen can keep up his hot play, Samuel should be able to thrive on Sunday.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals
Watching Ryan Finley's first start against the Ravens showed me a few things:
1) Finley wasn't intimidated in the pocket
2) He had more mobility than I expected
3) Joe Mixon was more vital to the entire attack than he had been all season
4) Boyd was Finley's first look when he dropped back to pass.
With the Raiders tough against the run and weak against the pass (they are the third-worst team against opposing wide receivers in the league), I fully expect Finley to pepper Boyd with tons of targets. Use Boyd in PPR formats as I expect about 16-20 fantasy points this week from him.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook, Saints
The Bucs are the second-worst team in the league against opposing tight ends, and they just cut their top cover CB in Vernon Hargreaves. This could be a real mess, and Drew Brees will certainly take advantage of the Bucs' biggest defensive weakness and find Cook in the end zone for at least one score.
Darren Waller, Raiders
After starting the year with a bang, Waller has slowed down over the last three weeks catching only seven passes on 15 targets. He hasn't had more than 52 yards receiving in the previous three games. Nothing helps break a streak more than facing a terrible defense, and this week the Raiders get to play the Bengals. Expect Carr to do whatever he can to get Waller back on track.
Eric Ebron, Lions
The adage, "The squeaky wheel gets the oil," definitely came into effect last week as Ebron had a meeting with Frank Reich to talk about his lack of targets in the passing game. Low and behold, Ebron went from two targets in Week 9 to 12 in Week 10. With TY Hilton still out and the Jaguars defense concentrating on stopping Marlon Mack and the running game, expect to see Ebron get at least six to eight targets with a good chance at scoring.
More Advice from SI Fantasy:
—Week 11 PPR rankings from Shawn Childs of FullTime Fantasy: QB, RB, WR, TE
—Dr. Roto’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em for your tougher lineup decisions
—Frank Taddeo’s streaming options if you’re dealing with injuries or bye weeks
—Tuesday’s Bull Market Fantasy show with Jim Cramer
—Jaime Eisner’s waiver wire pickups: Brian Hill, Darius Slayton and suggestions for deeper leagues
—Frankie Taddeo’s droppables, with some big-name players you shouldn’t feel bad about cutting
—Jaime Eisner’s stock watch can help you win a trade
—Bill Enright’s injury report has the impact on everyone who got hurt in Week 10
