2025 NFL Playoff Picture and Clinching Scenarios for Week 16

Nine teams can punch their tickets to the postseason this weekend, including the Patriots, Jaguars, Bills and Chargers in the AFC and the Eagles, 49ers and Seahawks in the NFC.

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen and quarterback Trevor Lawrence can punch their ticket to the postseason with a win on Sunday. / Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Rams and Broncos are already in the playoffs, and nine teams have a chance to join them with the right results this weekend. 

In the AFC, the Patriots, Jaguars, Bills and Chargers can all secure an 18th game. For New England, it’s win-and-in. Everyone else must win and get a little help, with a few scenarios centering on a Colts loss when they host the 49ers on Monday night. 

Meanwhile, the NFC is more straightforward. The Eagles, 49ers and Seahawks can all make the postseason with victories, with Philadelphia being able to clinch the NFC East for the second consecutive season. The Packers and Bears can also get into the playoffs with a win (they will meet Saturday at Soldier Field). but each would need the Lions to lose at home to the Steelers. 

With all that in mind, let’s look at how the playoff picture stands entering Week 16.

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AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Denver Broncos

Record: 12–2 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Broncos are favorites at home this week against Jacksonville after beating the Packers last weekend. With a win and three losses from AFC foes (see below), Denver can clinch home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

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No. 2: New England Patriots

Record: 11–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

The Patriots have a chance to put themselves into the playoffs for the first time in the post-Bill Belichick era. To get there, they’ll need to beat the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday Night Football.

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No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 98%

Liam Coen’s Jaguars are rolling toward their first division title since 2022. This weekend, Jacksonville will be on the road against the Broncos, who are riding a league-best 11-game winning streak.

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No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 8–6 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 59%

After beating the Dolphins at home on Monday night, the Steelers will now play on short rest in Detroit against a Lions team that must win out to have any realistic shot of making the playoffs.

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No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 94%

The Chargers eliminated the Chiefs from postseason contention last weekend and will now travel to Dallas, where they can get into the playoffs with a win over the Cowboys, coupled with a loss by the Colts or Texans.

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No. 6: Buffalo Bills

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

Buffalo is closing in on a seventh consecutive postseason berth and has a date with the reeling Browns on Sunday in Cleveland. With a win, the Bills will make the playoffs, provided Houston or Indianapolis loses. 

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No. 7: Houston Texans

Record: 9–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 96%

The Texans are the biggest favorite this week, laying 14.5 points at home against the Raiders. Houston can pull into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss at Denver.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 11–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Rams are one of two teams already in the playoffs, but nobody has a bigger game this week. Los Angeles will play the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. With a win, the Rams are in a prime position to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. With a loss, they will drop to the fifth seed.

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No. 2: Chicago Bears

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 80%

Chicago will host its biggest game since the halcyon days of Vic Fangio, Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Nagy and the 2015 division champs. The Bears will take on the Packers for the second time in three weeks, with the winner controlling the NFC North with two games remaining.

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No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 9–5 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 95%

If the Eagles can handle the Commanders, they will win the NFC East and be assured of hosting at least one home playoff game.

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No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 7–7 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 47%

Tampa Bay is on the road for a date with the surprising Panthers, who are also sitting at 7–7. Whoever wins has a clear leg up on the No. 4 seed in the NFC with two games left.

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No. 5: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 11–3 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 99%

Seattle will be hosting the Rams in the second of their two matchups this season. When the teams met in Los Angeles, the Seahawks lost, 21–19, in Week 11 despite Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. 

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No. 6: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 98%

The 49ers will be hoping to make the playoffs despite playing most of the season without Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy. If they can handle the Colts and 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers on Monday night, they’ll do just that.

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No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 9-4-1 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 96%

Green Bay is coming off a disastrous weekend in Denver, when the Packers lost both the game and Micah Parsons to a torn ACL. Now, the Packers will attempt to regroup on a short week when they play the Bears in Chicago for the NFC North lead.

Week 16 playoff-clinching scenarios

AFC

Denver clinches the AFC West division title and the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:

Broncos win plus Chargers loss or tie plus Patriots loss plus Bills loss or tie

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Denver clinches the AFC West division title with:

Broncos win plus Chargers loss or tie OR
Broncos tie plus Chargers loss

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Buffalo clinches a playoff berth with:

Bills win plus Colts loss or tie OR
Bills win plus Texans loss or tie OR
Bills tie plus Colts loss OR
Bills tie plus Texans loss

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New England clinches a playoff berth with:

Patriots win or tie OR
Colts loss or tie OR
Texans loss or tie

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Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:

Jaguars win plus Colts loss or tie OR
Jaguars win plus Texans loss or tie OR
Jaguars tie plus Colts loss OR
Jaguars tie plus Colts tie plus Texans loss

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Los Angeles clinches a playoff berth with:

Chargers win plus Colts loss or tie OR
Chargers win plus Texans loss or tie OR
Chargers tie plus Colts loss OR
Chargers tie plus Colts tie plus Texans loss

NFC

Philadelphia clinches the NFC East division title with:

Eagles win OR
Cowboys loss OR
Eagles tie plus Cowboys tie

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Chicago clinches a playoff berth with:

Chicago win plus Lions loss or tie OR
Chicago tie plus Lions loss

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Green Bay clinches a playoff berth with:

Packers win plus Lions loss or tie OR
Packers tie plus Lions loss

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San Francisco clinches a playoff berth with:

49ers win OR
Lions loss OR
49ers tie plus Lions tie

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Seattle clinches a playoff berth with:

Seahawks win or tie OR Lions loss or tie

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