A hidden matchup that could decide Eagles vs. 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers must win this chess matchup to beat the Philadelphia Eagles.

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If someone told you that the result of the San Francisco 49ers Wild Card matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles would come down to how often Grant Calcaterra and Jason Pinnock play, you would think they were a little bit off. However, their usage may go a long way in determining the outcome in this game. 

One matchup that may determine the San Francisco 49ers Wild Card matchup 

The Eagles mostly run 11-personnel and 12-personnel, which is one running back and one tight end, and then one running back, two tight ends. When the Eagles run from 11-personnel, which means an extra wide receiver is on the field, they rank 24th in Expected Points Added per play. 

Meanwhile, when they swap out the extra wide receiver for the tight end, typically Calcaterra, the team shoots up to 4th in EPA/play. The reason is that it frees up the other playmakers. 

Teams have to respect the run and bring in a heavier package. However, a team with Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith does not care if one extra pass catcher is now blocking or being a decoy; they now have a slower, run defender on the field. It allows them to create big plays.

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Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 9th in EPA/play against 11-personnel. It is the most common formation, and Robert Saleh’s defense is always at its best when they are assigned sound and playing fast. They also keep Upton Stout on the field, which is what they plan for. 

When they defend 12 personnel, they rank 18th in EPA/play allowed. This is typically because the 49ers are now forced to play either base or dime defense. 

Base is a third linebacker instead of Stout. This has often been Luke Gifford, who is exactly what the Eagles want on the field more often. Beyond that, Gifford and Dee Winters are banged up. This could mean Kyzir White off the street, or Curtis Robinson is filling into this role. Both will be tested against Philadelphia. 

The other option is to add Jason Pinnock to the mix. The issue is that Pinnock is more of a free safety, so he does not help in the run game, and he has had issues in coverage with all of the changes at linebacker. 

Upton Stout is a good run defender. He is undersized against tight ends, but the 49ers' best bet may be to go down swinging in nickel defense.