Projecting what Renardo Green Could Become for the 49ers

Intriguing player.

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Renardo Green is entering what could be described as a make-or-break year for the San Francisco 49ers. He was a late second-round pick, so the team is invested in him, but they could also move on quickly. After his rookie season, things looked great, but he hit more bumps in the road in year. After the team added two veterans who can push him this offseason, he could go either way, to be a future starter or be benched. 

The San Francisco 49ers need a big season from Renardo Green 

History says it could go either way. Since 2012, there have been 26 cornerbacks drafted between picks 40 and 90, and playing over 1,000 snaps in their first two seasons. Green ranks 14th in Approximate Value, so the start to his career has been about average compared to his peers. 

Of the 26 players, three of them ended up having All-Pro careers after a similar start to Green. Jaylon Johnson and James Bradbury hit strong highs with similar draft pedigrees. Johnson made the All-Pro in his fourth year, and Bradbury did not earn the honor until year five, so patience can pay off at times. Trevon Diggs made an All-Pro early, and then injuries derailed things. 

There were definitely some misses as well. Dwayne Gratz, Jonathan Banks, Daryl Worley, Greedy Williams, Trayvon Mullen, and Cameron Dantzler are downside comparisons that Green could be lumped into with one more poor season. These six never started much after their first two years. 

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The rest all had long chances to start in the NFL after their first two years. Some players, such as DJ Turner, Paulson Adebo, Donte Jackson, Carlton Davis, and Trumaine Johnson, became relied-on starters who were legitimate threats as high-end number two or number one cornerbacks. 

Other players in this group include Isaiah Oliver, Ahkello Witherspoon, Asante Samuel Jr., Martin Emerson, and Cam Taylor-Britt. They saw starting chances but were more high-quality depth or lower-end starters. Overall, there were 11 quality starters and six quality depth options. 

Excluding Diggs there is about an 8% chance that Green could still end up as an All-Pro despite the rocky start. There is a 44% chance he ends up as a quality starter, 24% chance that he is more likely to be quality depth, and then a 24% chance that he slowly starts to fade out of the NFL from here. That seems fair given where Green is.