What if the Bears Trade Down? Mapping Every Realistic Scenario for 2026 NFL Draft

It's finally draft week in the NFL. The first round of the 2026 NFL draft will kick off on Thursday night, and the Chicago Bears, after a triumphant Wild Card victory over the Green Bay Packers in 2025, will be picking near the back of the round for the first time in many years. This has created an unusual situation for the Bears: what to do with a first-round draft selection that is more like a second-round pick?

There won't be any blue-chip players available when the Bears are on the clock, especially in a weak draft class such as this one. Many fans and analysts had expected the Bears to try to trade their first-round pick for a proven veteran, but with Dexter Lawrence no longer available, that dream is dead. The course of action growing more likely is that the Bears trade back from the No. 25 slot.

Of course, it takes two to tango, and the Bears may not find a willing trade partner. If they stick at No. 25, defensive tackle Kayden McDonald is emerging as one of the Bears' top choices. However, multiple trade-back scenarios could present themselves on draft night, depending on how the board falls. Here are the most realistic.

1. Trade with Arizona Cardinals

Where there's smoke, there's fire, and there's plenty of smoke around the NFL that the Cardinals would like very much to draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, especially now that they're in the middle of a contract standoff with Jacoby Brissett. Furthermore, Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort may have quietly addressed the Ty Simpson buzz himself when he listed Simpson's two best traits, accuracy and decision-making, as what they're looking for in their next quarterback.

If they really do want Simpson, the Cardinals would likely try to trade up into the back of the first round, not only to get ahead of other teams who may want him (more on that in a minute), but also to ensure they get that pivotal fifth-year option on Simpson's rookie contract.

The Bears' pick at No. 25 may be the perfect slot for the Cardinals. A trade-up from their second-round pick (No. 34) wouldn't cost much, and it could likely get done with a pick swap in the third and fourth rounds. For the Bears, this would give them five picks between No. 33 and No. 89, the exact range where the best value in this year's class will be found.

Ty Simpso — Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2. Trade with New York Jets

The Cardinals aren't the only team looking for their quarterback of the future. The Jets ran a one-year Justin Fields experiment, and that failed. While they could wait until 2027 to try their hand at what is expected to be a better quarterback class, the fear of missing out on a tantalizing prospect like Simpson could be overpowering. He may not be ready to start right away, but that's why the Jets traded for Geno Smith. They could give Simpson a year or two to develop his game and ease his transition into the NFL.

For the same reasons as the Cardinals, the Jets may feel compelled to trade back into the first round to get Simpson. Also, like the Cardinals, a deal to swap picks with the Bears would not cost them much. If both teams want Simpson and the Bears are willing to move back, however, a bidding war between the two could get interesting.

3. Trade with New England Patriots

Teams that just miss out on a Super Bowl title tend to get desperate in the next year, especially when their quarterback is on a rookie contract. We already know that the Patriots are likely to trade for Eagles receiver AJ Brown, according to Adam Schefter, but that won't be enough to get the Patriots over the hump. They also need more weapons on defense, but selecting at No. 31 leaves them out in the cold.

The Eagles remain open to trading AJ Brown, the Patriots remain highly interested in acquiring the star receiver, and conversations are expected to resume shortly on or before June 1, likely culminating in a deal, per league sources.

As one source said about the Patriots'… https://t.co/00gLK5DEdh pic.twitter.com/JnCQF2wz7z
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 20, 2026

That's where a small trade-up comes into play, especially if a pass rusher like Akheem Mesidor is still available. This trade might actually be the best one of the three scenarios for Chicago to consider. They would still get to make a first-round selection, and the value of the swap could potentially net Chicago New England's second-round pick in return for their third-round pick, or they could take New England's third-round pick and keep all their other selections.

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