Caleb Williams' Projected Trade Value Proves He Belongs Among NFL's Elite

The Chicago Bears are never going to trade quarterback Caleb Williams, who just this week made the cut in ESPN's Top 10 NFL quarterback rankings for the 2026 season. But if the Bears were to test the trade market, what would be an acceptable offer for the Iceman? ESPN's Bill Barnwell released his annual NFL trade tiers for all 32 teams, a projection of which players would fetch at least one first-round pick in a trade, and Caleb Williams' value took a huge leap from last year.

Caleb Williams and Ben Johnso — Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams talks with head coach Ben Johnson. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The projected trade value for Caleb Williams doubled from his rookie season

After a tumultuous rookie season, Williams' trade value was assessed to be two first-round picks and more in Barnwell's 2025 NFL trade tiers. "He struggled through a dismal rookie season, and while it's fair to chalk up some of his woes to an underwhelming scheme and seemingly uninterested playmakers, he deserves plenty of the blame for what went wrong," Barnwell wrote at the time. "If new coach Ben Johnson does everything Bears fans are expecting with Williams this season... he could be back toward the untouchables in 2026."

That last line proved prescient as Barnwell now assesses Williams' value to be a whopping four first-round picks. He points to areas where Williams must still show improvement, such as completion percentage. However, Barnwell apparently saw enough growth from him in Year 2 to believe he's well on his way to superstardom. The fact that he still has three years remaining on a cheap rookie contract only sweetens the deal.

To be clear, in Barnwell's exercise, age and contract value factor into the projected trade package each player is worth. That's why Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP, only fetches a single first-round pick. But it still speaks to Williams' tremendous growth since his rookie year.

Caleb Williams has nearly reclaimed QB1 status from the 2024 NFL draft

The 2024 NFL quarterback class was projected to be one of the best in recent memory, and so far it has not disappointed. However, Williams, the first overall selection that year, has thus far been overshadowed by quarterbacks taken after him. Jayden Daniels won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, while Drake Maye came within one vote of being the 2025 NFL Most Valuable Player. Even Bo Nix has seemed to be a steadier NFL quarterback, guiding his team to the AFC Championship game last year before a late injury robbed him of his chance to play in it.

But Caleb Williams' breakout season in 2025 has set the stage for him to rush past his peers and prove once and for all that the Bears made the right choice with the No. 1 pick. This offseason he made franchise history by appearing on the Madden 27 cover, and he leaped up into ESPN's ranking of the Top 10 quarterbacks, just beating out division rival Jordan Love and fellow 2024 draftee Jayden Daniels.

Now, in Barnwell's trade tier projection, Williams' value of four first-round picks is the second best from his class. Maye jumped all the way up to a ridiculous six first-round picks while Daniels fell to three and some change. Nix remained steady at one first-round pick and more. Understandably, neither J.J. McCarthy nor Michael Penix Jr. made the cut.

The Bottom Line

Only four quarterbacks fetched a higher trade value than Williams in Barnwell's exercise. That includes the aforementioned Drake Maye, and the three names that you'd expect to see here: Patrick Mahomes (seven first-round picks), Josh Allen (seven first-round picks), and Justin Herbert (four first-round picks and more).

Critics may wave this away as only one analyst's opinions, but that's missing the forest for the trees. The entire NFL world seems believe that Caleb Williams is on the cusp of superstardom. ESPN's Top 10 list isn't just something they create out of nothing. It comes from highly detailed, anonymous discussions with NFL coaches, scouts, and executives, the very people who get paid a lot of money to assemble a Super Bowl contender.

Landing on the Madden cover was admittedly due in part to the massive hype around Williams and his iconic 'Jumpman' throw in the Bears' miraculous Wild Card win, but hype alone has never been enough to get players on the Madden cover. And then there's the player-voted Top 100 list, on which Williams is very likely to land in the Top 50 or better.

Taken altogether, the picture becomes clear. Caleb Williams' 2025 season was no fluke, and everyone from players and coaches to scouts and analysts expect him to get even better in his third season. If Barnwell continues this exercise in 2027, expect Williams to join Allen and Mahomes in the seven first-round pick club.

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