Bears' Super Bowl Hopes May Depend on a Defense Critics Are Reading Wrong

For the first time in seven years, the Chicago Bears face an upcoming NFL season with genuine hope of a bright future. They won the NFC North division title in 2025, pulled off a miraculous Wild Card win over the Green Bay Packers, and took a dominant L.A. Rams team into overtime in the Divisional round, all in head coach Ben Johnson's first season with the team. A Super Bowl run in 2026, therefore, is well within the realm of possibility.

Writing for Sports Illustrated, NFL analyst Matt Verderame laid out a realistic Super Bowl road map for the Bears in 2026. "Chicago has a chance to authorize a memorable season," Verderame writes. He goes on to note that "these Bears are talented enough to challenge anybody in a league that, beyond the Rams, lacks truly great rosters."

What holds Chicago back, according to Verderame, is the defense. "For this group, the biggest question is whether the defense can hold up. In 2025, it was ranked 29th in yards and 23rd in points allowed under veteran coordinator Dennis Allen. More range and athleticism should help in the secondary, but the personnel up front hasn’t changed enough to warrant optimism for improvement."

Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter — Chicago Bears DE Montez Sweat and DT Gervon Dexter Sr. during a game. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Chicago's defense was more hurt than bad in 2025

Verderame isn't wrong in his assessment of the Bears' defense. It was not good in 2025, a fact often overlooked by critics of the Bears when they bring up their historic turnover margin as proof that a regression is coming (our own Gene Chamberlain came up with four reasons to ignore these regression warnings).

However, a large part of the blame for Chicago's underwhelming defense last year can be attributed to purely bad luck in the injury department. That unit did not take a single snap without at least one starter sidelined by an injury. Arguably the most impactful injury was the loss of Jaylon Johnson, who suffered a groin injury in the summer and only played in seven games. Even when he played, he was clearly nowhere close to 100%.

Linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds each missed significant time as well, while defensive linemen Shemar Turner and Dayo Odeyingbo each suffered season-ending injuries at the end of October, and we're still just getting started on the list of injuries to the Bears' defense last year.

Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edward — Chicago Bears LB Tremaine Edmunds consoles LB T.J. Edwards after he got injured. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Bears already showed signs of improvement in the playoffs

Another point to remember is that 2025 was the Bears' first year under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. As with any team, it takes time for players to become fully comfortable in a new system, and Allen himself believes that a lot of blame for how last year went falls on his own shoulders. He believes the Bears already have the secret sauce to fix their defensive woes, and it starts with him.

Additionally, we already saw proof of concept in the way the Bears' defense performed in the playoffs. The narrative that followed them throughout the regular season was that they were takeaway merchants. The takeaway-train was bound to come to a halt at some point, and once it did, they would be exposed. Well, the Bears pulled in zero takeaways in the playoffs, yet the defense still performed admirably against two of the best, most explosive offenses in the NFL.

With another year in Allen's system, there's reason to believe that this unit will take a big step forward in 2026, especially after adding so much speed across the board through free agency and the draft.

Chicago Bears rookie safety Dillon Thieneman speaks at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Bottom Line

It's easy to see how Matt Verderame can look at Chicago's defense and fear that they will either regress or stagnate in 2026. Their takeaway numbers will almost certainly not be repeated, and the unit gave up way too many first downs and touchdowns in 2025. However, this surface-level examination misses several key factors that the Bears have already addressed this offseason.

The Bears have added speed and athleticism at all three levels of the defense, which will help them get after quarterbacks, stuff running lanes, and close passing windows. Outside of Kyler Gordon's injury issues at OTAs, the Bears should also be much healthier in 2026, which will improve unit cohesion. Indeed, Jaylon Johnson's minicamp performance that included two interceptions should quell any fears that he won't return to his Pro Bowl-caliber play.

They do have a lot to prove, and it's exceptionally hard for any team to make a Super Bowl run in even the best of circumstances. But I think the moves they've made this offseason are sufficient to warrant cautious optimism.

Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen speaks at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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