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NFL Expert Picks, Week 6: Will Bears get their Fail Mary revenge vs. Commanders?

Here's what NFL experts think will happen in the Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Week 6 Monday night game.
Bryan Perez|
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Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have had Week 6's Monday night matchup against the Washington Commanders circled on their calendar the minute the 2025 NFL schedule was released.

It's the same Commanders team that sent Chicago's 2024 season into a tailspin after the infamous Fail Mary gave Washington a last-second victory in last year's Bears' post-bye game.

Yes, let's re-live the nightmare:

It's a play that continues to sting Bears fans. Players aren't immune to the pain, either. Especially cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who's still haunted by his failure in that moment.

"It still hurts because at the end of the day, I'm a football player," Stevenson said, via CHGO. "The last thing I want to do is have a play that's not so good and my name be memorable on top of all the good things I do, that could overshadow that. I just use it as motivation to come out and stay focused on all tasks, and definitely learned until the clock hit double zeroes."

Fortunately for Stevenson and the Bears, they get their chance at revenge on Monday Night Football.

It's a game that will feature Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels, two of the NFL's bright young star quarterbacks, and could set up the winner for a legitimate playoff run later this season.

But what to the experts who are picking this game think will happen?

It's not great for the Bears.

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson looks on from the sideline
Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

NFL experts weigh in on Bears vs. Commanders game

According to NFL Pick Watch, 88% of experts polled think the Washington Commanders will win the game.

Yikes.

The biggest mismatch in this game is on defense, where the Commanders rank 9th in points allowed. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 28th.

Chicago's 31st-ranked run defense will be challenged by Washington's top-ranked rushing offense, which is a big reason why most experts think this game will end with a Commanders' win.

The rest of this contest is reasonably close. The Bears are 11th in scoring offense; the Commanders are 8th. Chicago is 14th in passing, the Washington is 23rd. The Bears' pass defense ranks 17th; The Commanders are 23rd.

Still, that massive mismatch between the Commanders' run game and the Bears' run defense is the key variable. If Chicago can level up and keep Jayden Daniels contained, they'll have a very good chance to end Monday night with a win. However, it's a big ask for a defense that's been a disappointment through four games this season.

Washington Commanders wide receiver Noah Brown (85) catches a Hail Mary pass
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Bryan Perez
BRYAN PEREZ

Bryan Perez founded and operated Bears Talk, a Chicago sports blog. Prior to that, he covered the Bears for USA Today’s Bears Wire and NBC Sports Chicago. In addition to his Chicago Bears coverage, Perez is a respected member of NFL Draft media and was a past winner of The Huddle's Mock Draft competition. Bryan's past life includes time as a Northeast scout for the CFL's Ottawa Redblacks.

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