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Bear Digest

Where NFL Hit Percentages Say Bears Would Risk Taking a Round 1 Bust

A few positions over more than a decade have produced the highest percentage of Round 1 busts, and it could be something for the Bears to keep in mind on draft day.
Gene Chamberlain|
The bottom line for this Bears offseason is they must keep Caleb Williams protected, and Kadyn Proctor could do this.
The bottom line for this Bears offseason is they must keep Caleb Williams protected, and Kadyn Proctor could do this. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Bears have shown interest in numerous players with visits, whether at Halas Hall, pro days, the combine or all-star games.  

The latest of these appears to have been a wide receiver. According to the Tribune's Brad Biggs, it was Mississippi's De'Zhaun Stribling. If you believe offensive line coach Dan Roushar, this is meaningless or even a ruse because he said they use 30 visits for researching players and not to introduce future draft picks to Halas Hall.

If they want a wide receiver, they need to avoid one in Round 1. There are several good reasons not to pick a receiver in the first round, but the main one is hit rate.

Some positions have better hit rates in Round 1. This isn't to say there can’t be anomalies, but clearly the Bears wouldn't go wrong by selecting players at certain positions in Round 1 based on a 15-year study by Pro Football Focus. They did this study last year, but 15 years is a good number of drafts to assess and is very definitive.

Tight end Colston Loveland’s success was easily explained by this study.

Basically, the study considered a hit to be players who started two-thirds of the snaps on their side of the ball over their first four years. This is reasonable, considering how first-rounders can require part of their first year to work into the NFL and the lineup.

Tight ends had the highest hit rate at 73.3%. So the study accurately predicted what would happen with Loveland and Colts tight end Tyler Warren. It is easier to have a higher percentage when so few tight ends get taken in Round 1, and only 15 were chosen then.

What the study says about first-round wide receivers is only 56.9% reach the level of being a “hit.”

If the goal is mainly to avoid a bust, there is one position above all others to avoid.

Unfortunately for GM Ryan Poles and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, it is edge rusher.

The Bears obviously need an edge rusher to bolster the pass rush, but only 49.3% of edges drafted in Round 1 were at the two-thirds play count, or a hit level, over their first four seasons.

Part of this number is the result of how many teams take a shot at edges in Round 1. More edge rushers were drafted in Round 1, so naturally the percentage would be smaller. For instance, there where 75 edge rushers drafted in the first round but only 15 tight ends.  The second-lowest percentage of success was cornerbacks at 50%, but they also had the second-most players drafted at 64.

Teams will take first-round cornerbacks because it's so important, but they'll only find a 50% rate of success. Receiver was 56.9% success rate.

"For premium positions—such as edge rusher or wide receiver—teams appear more willing to take risks on high-upside prospects, even if those players come with clear flaws," wrote Timo Riske in the article tied to the study.

This study obviously can't account for years when there is a deeper edge rush class, like this one. It could be this is the year of the edge, but the percentages overall say it is a risky play to draft an edge in Round 1. They will need to be very certain.

The better options

The outlook is better at other positions of need or the Bears, like defensive tackle, tackle or safety.

Safeties taken in Round 1 have the third-highest percentage for a hit rate at 71.4%. The second-highest percentage for a hit rate belongs to tackles. This makes sense, as it's always been said the surest NFL pick in Round 1 is a tackle.

Not only do tackles have the second-highest hit rate (73%), but there were more of them drafted than every position except edges and cornerbacks (63). Obviously, the safest play in terms of finding player who succeed in Round 1 is to draft a tackle.

The Bears can also use a defensive tackle, and the Round 1 hit rate is right in the middle at 63.2%, with the number of DTs drafted about the same level (57).

The 71.4% safety hit rate was based only on 28 safeties. Teams don't take many safeties in Round 1, but those taken do tend to succeed.       

It's the same way with interior offensive line positions, where the hit rate is fourth-highest at 70%, although only 30 have been drafted. Teams don't normally draft guards and centers in Round 1. They draft guards then more often, but they'll sometimes take tackles and turn them into guards.

Living on the edge is risky

What all of this should say for the Bears picking way back at No. 25 in Round 1 is they better be very certain about an edge rusher before they, ahem, rush right in and take one.

It also suggests that if they take a tackle in Round 1, there's a very good chance for success.

They showed interest in players like Kadyn Proctor from Alabama, Utah's Caleb Lomu, Max Iheanachor with pro days. However, both Poles and assistant GM Jeff King attended the Alabama pro day where Proctor worked out for scouts. He wasn't reported by anyone with a 30 visit to Chicago.

The 30 visits are now finished.

Fixing the defensive line is critical for the Bears because of their poor performance stopping the run and rushing the passer.

However, last year's rise to the top of the NFC North occurred mainly because of a turnaround by their offense from last to sixth. Losing receiver DJ Moore is a blow but they have other wide receivers.

What really triggered last year's turnaround was an offensive line capable of opening holes for D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai in the running game but also finally keeping the pass rush off quarterback Caleb Williams so he could find receivers.

The Bears' baseline for this offseason must be making 100% sure they can continue to keep Williams protected, and as it stands they can't be sure. They had lineup changes at left tackle and center. 

Getting as many top options at left tackle as possible and then getting a center prospect to groom in middle rounds is the necessary route for the Bears.

Within the same article is a list of Day 2 hit rates. Interior offensive line—centers and guards—have the highest rate at 48.6%. Safeties are the second-highest (43.8%). Edge rushers are next to last at 18.2%

Tackles drop off sharply from their perch in Round 2 to 33.8%. The Bears' success needs to be based on getting whatever is necessary to let Williams cook.

It's something to think about, especially with the large degree of uncertainty surrounding Ozzy Trapilo's ability to return from a severe knee injury suffered in the playoffs, and also the uncertainty with drafting edge rushers in Rounds 1 or 2.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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