Stat Predictions for Bears vs Eagles Includes a Big Day for Defensive Line

The Chicago Bears face a brutal assignment in their first prime time game of the 2026 season. With Caleb Williams' hamstring injury sidelining him for three to four weeks and Tyson Bagent not practicing until Saturday due to being in the NFL's concussion protocol, third-string quarterback Case Keenum will get the start tonight against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense.

All hope is not lost, however. Keenum isn't just any third-string quarterback, after all. The 14-year veteran may need to knock some rust off, but he's played a lot of football over the years and should be able to operate a simplified version of head coach Ben Johnson's offense. If he can indeed play safe, efficient football, the Bears have a real chance of upsetting the Eagles again.

With that in mind, let's get to some stat predictions for tonight's game.

1. Case Keenum: 17-for-23 passing for 185 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions

With Keenum starting in place of Williams, you can expect Johnson to dial down the roll-outs, bootlegs, and RPO's and keep things simple. Keenum is a wily veteran who has seen a lot of coverages over the years, so Johnson will likely give him plenty of quick-hitting plays in the middle of the field with a check down option if nothing comes open.

It'll look a lot more boring than what we're used to with Williams, but Keenum should be able to run an efficient offense that gets the ball to his playmakers as quickly as possible so they can pick up yards after the catch. I wouldn't expect more than 23 pass attempts, with Keenum converting on about 70% of them. I'd be surprised if he throws an interception, barring a tipped pass or a lucky bounce, but watch out for strip-sack opportunities.

2. Defense: Four sacks and 10 quarterback hits

Austin Booker and Carson Wentz — Chicago Bears DE Austin Booker sacks Minnesota Vikings QB Carson Wentz. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This may come as a surprise to Bears fans, but the Eagles' offensive line has been brutal after two weeks of football. What was once the best O-line in football is now allowing a 40% pressure rate and an 8.8% sack rate on quarterback Jalen Hurts (22nd and 24th in the NFL, respectively). In the run game, they're only the 20th best unit according to ESPN's run block win rate.

This means the Bears' defense has a chance to help deliver a big upset victory. With a wounded O-line in their sights, they should be able to contain even the dangerous Saquon Barkley, which will allow them to pin their ears back and get after Hurts relentlessly in the pass game. I'm predicting a four-sack game for this defensive line and 10 QB hits.

3. Cairo Santos: one-for-two on field goal attempts, with one 40+ yarder getting blocked

On Friday, Bears special teams coordinator Richard Hightower revealed a potential fatal flaw against an elite Eagles unit: field goal attempts. The Eagles are able to routinely get a strong push in front of the kicker thanks to defensive tackle duo Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, and that could pose a big problem for the Bears.

Cairo Santos is a reliably accurate kicker, but he has one of the weaker legs in the NFL, forcing him to take a lower arc on his field goal attempts than kickers who can hit from 60 yards or further. Knowing this, expect the Eagles to get a hand on one kick from at least 40 yards out, and that could very well mean the difference between victory and defeat.

4. Luther Burden III: six receptions on eight targets for 90 yards and one touchdown

What I expect the Bears' plan for the passing game to be tonight should make Burden the main beneficiary. I expect him to get the lion's share of targets and to pick up some serious yards after the catch. He should also be the guy who picks up Chicago's lone passing touchdown against the Eagles, and that one will come on a nifty route just outside of the red zone, with Keenum dropping a picture-perfect pass into the back corner of the endzone.

Sign Up For the Bears Daily Digest - OnSI’s Free Chicago Bears Newsletter

Add us as a preferred source on Google