Three Factors That Will Decide Bears Week 5 Matchup Against Green Bay

One of the league's most storied rivalries will be on display when the Bears travel to Lambeau Field to take on their rivals to the north on Sunday.

Even without Caleb Williams in the lineup, both teams seem to be going in opposite directions. Ben Johnson's Chicago Bears are humming on both sides of the ball. They sit at 3-1 and have won with two different backup QBs under center over the past two weeks.

Tyson Bagent will start against Green Bay, and he'll be eager to build on last week's performance, where he completed 25 of 34 attempts for 268 yards in the Bears' 23-12 win over the Jets.

Tyson Bagent throwing the ball — Oct 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) passes the ball against the New York Jets during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Meanwhile, the Packers will try to fend off speculation about their demise after stumbling out of the gates. They're currently 2-2, but they barely survived in their two victories and were blown out in their two losses. It's been a disappointing season for Green Bay faithful thus far.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bears are 2.5-point favorites heading into the divisional clash. The vast majority of the experts are also putting their chips in on them.

Sunday's contest marks the first time in 20 years that the Bears are favored on the Packers' home turf. That game went extremely well for Chicago, and they'll be eager to repeat history.

What will they need to accomplish in order to get that done?

Find rushing success against Green Bay's defense

D'Andre Swift running with the ball — Oct 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) hands the ball off to running back D'Andre Swift (4) against the New York Jets during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Packers' defense looked formidable in every category for much of last season. However, they haven't been the same ever since edge rusher Micah Parsons tore his ACL in the team's Week 15 matchup against Denver. He's the engine that makes that defense go, and they've been stuck in neutral (or, more specifically, reverse) without him.

Green Bay has given up the fifth-most rushing yards (139.3 yards per game) over the first month of the season. The Falcons ran them over for 242 yards in their Week 3 clash. The Bears will try to recreate that blueprint on Sunday, and it should be easier after linebacker Edgerrin Cooper ruptured his Achilles tendon last week.

Bagent stood in the pocket and made some strong throws all over the field against the Jets. Aside from the turnover-worthy plays, it was an impressive performance in his first regular-season action in more than three years. He would still greatly benefit from a strong running game, though. They don't want to put the game on his shoulders.

Unfortunately, Kyle Monangai will be sidelined with a turf toe injury. They'll be depending on D'Andre Swift and Roshon Johnson (and potentially Salvon Ahmed being called up from the practice squad) to carry the load. If they can run the ball efficiently, Bagent should reap the benefits in the play-action game.

Don't let Green Bay's playmakers take over the game

Tucker Kraft making a catch — Oct 4, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) attempts to catch a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the sky over Green Bay has seemingly been falling to begin this season, they have gotten some positive returns from their pass-catching unit.

Christian Watson is on pace for a 1,400-yard campaign and has scored a touchdown in three of four games. Matthew Golden appears to have shed the bust label, as he's on pace for over 1,100 yards and has two receiving TDs of his own. Tucker Kraft might not have picked up where he left off last season, but he's also one of the league's top young tight ends.

The Bears have done a great job holding their opponents in check on defense through the first month of the season. They have given up the third-fewest passing yards in the league (179.8 yards per game).

The Packers have a potent collection of weapons, though. This will undoubtedly be Chicago's toughest test thus far. Chicago's pass defense will need to bring their A-game to avoid a potential shootout.

Get consistent pressure on Jordan Love

Austin Booker sacking Geno Smith — Oct 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears defensive line Austin Booker (94) tackles New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Packers' makeshift offensive line has been one of the league's most susceptible units. They added three veterans to the line (Kevin Zeitler, Laken Tomlinson, and Mekhi Becton) after their Week 3 blowout loss against Atlanta, but they didn't have much more success up front against the Buccaneers last week.

Quarterback Jordan Love has only been sacked eight times, but he's been under constant duress. The struggles up front have led him to complete only 56.5% of his passes through the first four games.

Meanwhile, the Bears have done a great job of getting consistent pressure on opposing QBs. If they can continue that trend on Sunday, then they should come out with a win in the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field.

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