Why Dayo Odeyingbo signing requires leap of faith from Bears fans

This isn't the household name but their defensive end signing is a player who is viewed as a rising, young, potential star who comes as a perfect scheme fit and at a high price.

Dayo Odeyingbo is a pass rusher who is stout against the run and fits the Dennis Allen scheme. | Grace Hollars/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

There will be plenty of long faces over the signing of Colts free agent defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo.

This is an ideal fit in the system run by Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, although it's also a signing based to a large extent on projection. And three years and a reported $48 million with $32 million guaranteed is an awful lot to base on a projection. 

Johnson's ideal defensive line fit for body types is one edge rusher in the 260-pound range and one at or near 280 pounds. He conducted business this way in New Orleans from 2018-2024 and the Bears didn't have a fit on the right side of their defensive line once they released Demarcus Walker. But Odeyingo is 6-foot-6, 286 pounds and big enough to be stout but also rush off the edge and even slide inside if necessary.

The comparison he has size-wise to Allen's Saints teams is Cameron Jordan, at 6-4, 287.

It would be really easy to see the Bears four-man rush lining up with a faster speed type on the edge for third downs or passing situations, possibly a rookie or even Austin Booker on the edge and both Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter.  It would be a formidable front.

The reason there will be some quizzical looks over this signing besides the high cash amount is Odeyingbo made only 16 1/2 sacks in his four Colts seasons.  

Dayo Odeyingbo hits Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke during the 2023 season. | Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

However, Odeyingbo is exactly the type of player many teams want to find in free agency and few do. They're getting him on the rise and are not paying for what he already achieved with another team.

Odeyingbo is only 25 years old and seems to be improving with each season. He had 41 of his 62 pressures in the last two seasons according to Pro Football Reference/Stathead. Pro Football Focus had him at 42 pressures in 2024 alone, in a far more lenient way of grading.

Although he had only three sacks last year, he made eight the previous season.

"It's been up and down," he told Nate Atkins of The Indy Star. "It's hard to say. As a D-Line, you're judged off of strictly sacks, so it was disappointing as far as that is concerned. That's a struggle to deal with.

"At the same time, I feel like I've gotten better as a player. I think I've developed my rush plan a lot better. I think I've executed my rushes better. I had way more pressures than I ever have. It's hard to say. It's disappointing, but it's also encouraging. ... It's just a little fuel going into the offseason."

The analysts with Pro Football Focus had him graded as only the 54th best edge out of 119 last year, but far better than the 93rd ranking he had in 2023.

The reason Odeyingbo is viewed as a player who is coming on now largely due to the Achilles tear he had before he was even drafted. He tore it after Vanderbilt's season while in training before the Senior Bowl in 2021. This made the difference in only half a sack and four pressures as a rookie.

Then Odeyingbo began to come on strong. The Colts were so sold on Odeyingbo they drafted him in the second round even after such a severe injury pretty much guaranteed he'd have little impact as a rookie.

The Bears won't be less likely to draft an edge rusher because of this and, in fact, need to find another one.

Dayo Odeyingbo gets Justin Herbert for a sack. Odeyingbo has just 16 1/2 sacks in four seasons but is viewed as a rising player. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

However, they don't need to take one in Round 1 now if they can meet another need or see a special player, like possibly a running back.

Possibly even better, it allows them to trade back in Round 1 and pick up more draft picks in Rounds 2, 3 or 4.

The reason for concern is obvious. What if the projections are wrong? There's only one season of high production to base a deal of this kind on, but ceiling is very high for a player like this while the floor is a solid, run-stopping edge who makes the run defense and pass rush better than last year when they had 40 sacks.

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