Cincinnati Bengals Capped At LOW 2025 Ceiling in Analytic Projection

Not bullish on the Bengals.

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) watches a replay in the fourth quarter of the NFL Preseason Week 3 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Indianapolis Colts at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025. The Colts won 41-14. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CINCINNATI —  NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund does not see the Bengals as a legitimate playoff contender, let alone a title contender, in her final NFL model projections for the 2025 season.

She slapped the Bengals with a 9.9 win ceiling and a six-win floor. Her model thinks they are wildly mediocre, even with a healthy Joe Burrow.

The simulation takes into account the past 12 years of league data and runs through 1,000,000 simulated 2025 seasons.

"Here's how special Joe Burrow is: When I swap in a QB who is merely 'above average' for the Bengals and hold all other factors constant -- including defense and offensive-line play, which, as a very conservative modeler, I weigh heavily -- Cincinnati ends up nowhere near the playoff hunt," Frelund wrote.

Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor likely wouldn't agree with this after his team got a solid preseason of work in that included no major injuries to key pieces on the roster.

“I thought we got all the work done that we needed to do," Taylor said after the loss to Indianapolis. "I really feel good. I like where we are from a health standpoint. I like where we are from an install standpoint. Our key guys understand what we’re trying to get and what our intent is. So, I feel really good as a football team where we are right now. We’ll get a chance next week with the bonus week to get a head start on Cleveland.”

Cincinnati has never finished a healthy Burrow season with fewer than nine wins.

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