Three Last-Minute Bills' Player Prop Bets That Bank On Josh Allen Air Show vs. Lions

The Buffalo Bills look like a good bet to have their way passing the football against the Detroit Lions on Thursday night in Orchard Park.

Jan 17, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) celebrates after a touchdown against Denver Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga (9) during the fourth quarter of an AFC Divisional Round playoff game at Empower Field at Mile High. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Buffalo Bills host a vulnerable pass defense on Thursday Night Football, and franchise quarterback Josh Allen should be able to take advantage of the Detroit Lions' shortcomings.

After torching the Houston Texans, who boasted the NFL's top-ranked defense in 2025, the Bills will open their brand-new stadium against the Lions on September 17 in primetime. Here's how the Sports Illustrated prediction panel sees it unfolding.

While Thursday games have a tendency to lean to the under, there's a thought that Allen and the Bills should be able to get theirs in front of a raucous home crowd.

Here are three Bills' individual player prop bets to consider ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. All totals are offered by DraftKings and odds are subject to change.

Josh Allen
280+ pass yards (+171)

I've believed all along that Allen can challenge the 4,500-yard passing mark this season with the addition of DJ Moore to the receiving corps coupled with Joe Brady's promotion to head coach. His Week 1 performance only strengthened that belief.

Allen went 20-of-29 passing for 334 yards and two touchdowns against the Houston Texans. He led the NFL with a 13.2 air yards per pass average.

"I think we've shown all offseason that we have the ability to push the ball," said Brady. "We've got to be smart about when we're doing it, but when it is there, man, we've got to pull the trigger and go be a sniper with it."

Sep 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes the ball during the game against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When coaching Moore with the Carolina Panthers in 2020, Brady oversaw an offense that passed for 3,888 yards with Teddy Bridgewater as QB1 in a 16-game season. Without Sean McDermott to rain on the parade, Brady appeared eager to call multiple deep shots in the passing game against the Houston Texans.

Look for Allen to have his way against a pedestrian Lions' secondary in front of a raucous crowd in Orchard Park. There's value in backing him to flirt with the 300-yard mark for the second week in a row.

Khalil Shakir
60+ receiving yards (+196)

While DJ Moore appears destined to smash the 1,000-yard receiving mark this season, the other benefit to his arrival is that his presence opens up opportunities for other skill position players.

“A guy like DJ Moore, he made a lot of plays yesterday, but sometimes in a situation like that, or a guy like Dalton Kincaid, they made the play without making the play," said Brady. "Because they're out on the football field, and because of the ability to be able to get the ball in that situation, the defense has to play it a certain way, and it allows somebody else, if it's there, to take it."

Sep 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One of those playmakers is Khalil Shakir, who led the Bills in receiving each of the past two years. After 50 yards on four catches in Week 1, Shakir projects to have even more opportunities against a Lions' defense that surrendered 410 pass yards to unheralded New Orleans Saints' quarterback Tyler Shough.

We're pressing our luck by taking Shakir to hit the 60-yard mark on Thursday night, paying back +196 in potential winnings.

Dalton Kincaid
Anytime touchdown scorer (+180)

Albeit at significantly longer odds (+330), this was our lone player prop bet that lost in Week 1, but we are running it back for Thursday Night Football.

Although he failed to reach the end zone in the season opener, Kincaid was a huge part of the Bills' passing success against the Texans. He caught five of six targets for a game-high 130 yards in the 36-31 victory.

Sep 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) makes a reception as Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (24) defends | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"He's a stud. Absolute stud," said Allen after the win.

In 2025, Kincaid made a team-high five TD receptions over 12 regular season appearances. He also caught touchdown passes in both Bills' playoff games this past January.

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