Buffalo Bills have golden opportunity to exploit Patriots' fading run 'D' in Week 15

The Patriots' run defense has struggled to live up to its early-season production in recent weeks.

Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) tosses the ball after rushes against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

During the Buffalo Bills’ first matchup with the New England Patriots this season, James Cook endured some tough sledding en route to one of the few modest performances he has put forth throughout the 2025 campaign.

Cook rushed for just 49 yards during the Week 5 loss to New England, averaging 3.3 yards per carry on 15 totes, his second-lowest rate of the season. Cook and the Bills’ failure to run the ball against New England in the two teams’ first meeting was affected by what was one of the best run-supporting defenses in the league through the first half of the season. But things may be different on the second go around.

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Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) practices before the game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Change of pace

As Pat Thorman of Establish the Run pointed out, in Weeks 1 through 10, the Patriots’ run defense ranked fourth in EPA/play and eighth in success rate while limiting its opponents to 79.2 rushing yards per game and an average of 3.6 yards per carry.

But since Week 11, what was once a strength of the New England resistance has transitioned into a weakness. Over the four weeks, New England’s run ‘D' is 23rd in the league in EPA per play and 31st in success rate while allowing 123.7 yards rushing per game and an average of 4.7 yards per carry.

Patriots Run D

Weeks 1-10:
4th in EPA/play
8th success rate
3.6 yards per carry (4th)
79.2 rushing yards/game

Weeks 11*-now:
23rd in EPA/play
31st success rate
4.7 yards per carry (27th)
123.7 rushing yards/game

*Milton Williams played 8 snaps in Week 11. Hasn't played since.

— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 8, 2025

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Missing Williams

The Patriots’ recent struggles against opposing rushing attacks have coincided with an injury to star defensive tackle Milton Williams, who has not played since an abbreviated stint in Week 11. Williams was placed on injured reserve due to a high-ankle sprain on Nov. 15 and won’t be eligible to return until a Week 17 matchup with the New York Jets.

Before his absence began, Williams had recorded 27 tackles, seven of which came for a loss. Against the Bills in Week 5, the 26-year-old DT finished with four tackles, a .5 sack and a quarterback hit.

Been cooking

Cook has been on a tear as of late, totaling 340 yards rushing while averaging over five yards per carry in the Bills’ last three games. He is currently second in the NFL in yards rushing (1,308), trailing only Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (1,356). He has been a consistent force for the Buffalo offense throughout the season and appears to have another golden opportunity to shine this week against New England's fading run defense.

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