Four Reasons Buffalo Bills Will Win Super Bowl LXI in 2026

A few things must come to fruition if the Buffalo Bills expect to win Super Bowl LXI.

The Bills are entering a 2026 season filled with championship-or-bust expectations, and after firing former head coach Sean McDermott and hiring Joe Brady to take over at the helm, the pressure Buffalo is facing entering the upcoming campaign has never been greater.

If Brady can’t get the Bills over the hump, this year will have been a massive disappointment, leaving Buffalo to enter yet another long offseason with even more questions than it faced over the past several months. With that said, if the Bills go on to disprove the doubters while making it to the promised land and then winning the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in their history, there will be a few key reasons why.

The first is that Josh Allen will have bounced back from an inefficient 2025 season.

Allen recorded 39 touchdowns a year ago, coming up just shy of his sixth straight season with 40-plus touchdowns, which would have equaled Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers' all-time mark. For his efforts, Allen was honored as a finalist for the MVP award for the fifth time in his career alongside award-winner Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Christian McCaffrey and Trevor Lawrence.

Still, the Bills’ gunslinger was far from his best, as displayed by his lowest Pro Football Focus passing grade [84.0] since 2021. He also finished the season with his lowest passing EPA [Expected Points Added] since his second professional season, recording a mark of +57.3 in 2025, according to Next Gen Stats.

If Buffalo winds up maintaining its championship caliber in Brady’s first season as head coach, Allen will have been at his best while protecting the football better than he did a year ago, when he finished with four more interceptions than he did during his 2024 MVP campaign.

DJ Moore must produce a big season for the Bills

Another factor that will weigh heavily upon Buffalo’s chances of claiming championship glory is the level of impact DJ Moore will have in his first year as the team’s top wide receiver. After Buffalo gave up a second-round pick to land him in a trade with the Chicago Bears on March 5, Moore must step into the Buffalo offense and offer an immediate return on the team’s investment. Otherwise, it could be another long year for the Bills’ passing game.

Moore is coming off the worst season of his career, having received a PFF receiving grade of 67.9 in 2025, while his catch percentage of 58.8% was his lowest since the 2022 season with the Carolina Panthers. He finished the year with career-lows in receptions [50] and yards [682].

If the Bills’ wide receiver corps is to take the next step toward helping the team reach the mountaintop in 2026, it will have started with Moore displaying the big-time ability to carry the Buffalo passing game. If he fails to measure up, much more would be expected out of the likes of Keon Coleman, which would not be good news for the Bills.

James Cook needs another monster year

Aside from Allen, the Bills don’t have much bona fide firepower at any of the offensive skill positions, with the exception of running back, where James Cook is coming off his best season since Buffalo selected him with the No. 63 overall pick in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft. Cook was brought in as a change-of-pace back, but has quickly elevated to the team’s bell cow and is just months removed from having claimed the NFL rushing title.

Entering 2026, while the wide receiver group was boosted through the trade for Moore and the fourth-round selection of Skyler Bell in this year’s draft, Cook must once again be rock solid in the running game to make up for any potential growing pains the team’s new-look group of pass catchers faces this year.

Cook recorded 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground a year ago, just 26 more yards than runner-up for the rushing crown, Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry. It will be difficult for Cook to live up to his performance from 2025, but another big year from the 26-year-old will help the Bills ascend past the divisional round of the playoffs this year.

Bradley Chubb has to prove he is a big boost for Bills’ pass rush

After recording just 36 total sacks last season, tied for 20th in the league, Buffalo brought in free agent Bradley Chubb on a three-year, $43.5 million contract. Fresh off an 8.5-sack performance, Chubb will look to carry the momentum he forged during a rebound year into his first season with the Bills. And boy, do they need him to record a big year.

Buffalo’s leading sack-getter a season ago was Greg Rousseau, who finished with seven sacks, one fewer than he finished with the year before. The Bills’ next most prolific pass rusher was Joey Bosa, who recorded just five sacks in 2025.

If the Bills are to live up to the sky-high expectations that have been placed upon them this season, the defense will have been much better in critical situations and the best way to do that is by getting after the quarterback. That’s job No. 1 for Chubb in his first season in Orchard Park.

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