Bills Graded Harshly After Bradley Chubb Free-Agent Signing

Evaluations of the Buffalo Bills’ start to the offseason are starting to roll in, and one NFL analyst provided harsh analysis of the team’s top free-agent move.

The Bills signed EDGE Bradley Chubb to a three-year, $43.5 million deal to bolster the team’s pass rush, which has struggled to measure up over the past many seasons. And while Bills fans were excited to see a former first-round pick enter the fold, ESPN’s Seth Walder was not as big a fan of the deal.

In a recent article, Walder graded the move a C-, citing several reasons as to why the Bills may have reached when making their splash signing.

His analysis

Miami Dolphins linebacker Bradley Chubb, top, and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, bottom, hit New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) causing a fumble during the first half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium. | Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

The ESPN analyst acknowledged Chubb’s bounce-back season in 2025, during which he responded from a season-ending injury the year prior to post 8.5 sacks. However, Walder explained that there is more to the story.

“That sounds pretty solid, but the advanced metrics don’t paint nearly as strong a picture,” he wrote. “Chubb’s pass rush win rate at edge was just 7.6% — 14th percentile for the position. That’s a dramatic drop from where he was before his ACL tear — his number in the same category in 2023 was 21.4%.”

Walder added, “I understand the Bills need pass rush help, but this is a lot to pay for a player hitting 30 with two past ACL tears and who had a big falloff in his numbers after the latest injury.”

He also mentioned the Bills’ salary-cap situation and how the Chubb signing is bordering on financial malpractice, considering Buffalo entered the offseason well over the cap.

“…As it tries to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the early 1990s, [Buffalo] is paying a lot to find out if Chubb can bounce back,” Walder concluded.

Much-needed boost

If Chubb is unable to produce what is expected of him, it would be a killer blow for the Bills’ defense, which is relying on the seven-year veteran to transform the team’s ability to pressure opposing passers. Greg Rousseau was the team’s leader in sacks in 2025, finishing with seven, which was tied for 35th in the league.

The Bills haven’t had a player record a double-digit sack season since Leonard Floyd, but he did so at the ripe age of 31 when he finished with 10.5 sacks. So, as Walder pointed out, while there is room to argue that Chubb will be a disappointment down the road, there is also room for hope that he can live up to his billing as the savior of Buffalo’s pressure unit.

Time will tell which side of the argument proves correct.