Bills Josh Allen's rank in ESPN's top 100 MVP candidates could come as a shock

ESPN ranked the top 100 MVP candidates, and you might be surprised to see where Bills quarterback Josh Allen landed.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen gets tackled by Denver Broncos safety Brandon Jones while carrying the ball during the first half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The league's NFL Honors show is slated for February 6. That's when we find out who the league's MVP will be, but until then, the debate continues. There are a handful of candidates, but for most fans, it comes down to Bills quarterback Josh Allen, and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. But that didn't stop ESPN from ranking their top 100 MVP candidates for the 2024 NFL season.

This list was based on numbers and analytics, not just someone's opinion. According to Seth Walder, ESPN analytics writer, "To create my initial rankings, I ranked players by position and slotted them into an overall list. I leaned on a wide variety of quantitative metrics -- win rates, receiver tracking metrics, coverage data, various EPA measures --- along with my own analysis. Qualitative considerations such as All-Pro teams and PFF grades were considered, too."

Walder added, "I shared my initial list with several colleagues and trusted talent evaluators in NFL front offices to get their expert input. I moved players based on their feedback, particularly if multiple people told me I misjudged a certain player."

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) moves in the pocket against the Denver Broncos. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

When all was said and done, it was Allen at the top, not Jackson. It is clear there is a contingency of writers and analysts that believe Allen is the rightful choice, but whether this has any sort of connection to the actual vote remains to be seen. Walder in his comments said, "Allen also finished third in total team EPA on scrambles or designed carries (49). Thirty percent of the Bills' third- and fourth-down conversions came via quarterback runs, only trailing the Eagles from Weeks 1-17. Even when removing runs and scrambles, ranked third in QBR (71) and second in EPA per play despite a low play-action rate (21%, 28th), a low designed rollout rate and an average motion at the snap rate."

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) meets Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) at mid-field after a game at New Era Field. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Rounding out the top five were quarterbacks Jackson, Bengals' Joe Burrow, Commanders' Jayden Daniels, and Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes. The first non-QB to make the list was Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase at number eight and Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at nine. The voting is done, so the matchup between the Ravens and Bills will have no effect on the outcome of the vote, but if the winning quarterback is not the MVP, it'll just fuel the controversy that has spiked between Bills Mafia and Ravens Flock.

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