Four Reasons Bills Will Regret Falling to Patriots in AFC East Matchup

Buffalo dropped its first game of 2026 to New England despite being a touchdown favorite

Oct 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots safety Craig Woodson (4) intercepts a pass intended Buffalo Bills wide receiver Josh Palmer (5) during the fourth quarter for at New Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Buffalo Bills could have gotten off to a 4-0 start in back-to-back years for the first time since their 1990s Super Bowl era. Unfortunately, they’re now 3-1, and they have no one to blame but themselves.

From Josh Allen’s puzzling fourth-quarter interception to allowing the New England Patriots to score a season-high 29 points, the Bills squandered a massive opportunity Sunday.

The AFC is as tight as ever, with teams like the Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens, Jaguars, and Browns all off to fast starts. So, falling to New England at home for the second straight year could haunt Buffalo in the future.

Division lead shrinks

Oct 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Efton Chism III (86) makes a catch for a touchdown as Buffalo Bills cornerback Davison Igbinosun (21) defends during the fourth quarter at New Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Bills had downed the Pats, they would have been 4-0. That would have dropped New England to 1-3 and, even more importantly, three games behind in the AFC East race.

Now, Buffalo only holds a one-game lead. But the loss also coincides with what may be its most treacherous slate of games on the year on the horizon.

Tough midseason stretch

The Bills' next four games are visits to both the Rams and Las Vegas, followed by a home tilt with Baltimore, their bye, and then a visit to the Vikings. All four of those teams have at least .500 records, with two of them remaining undefeated on the season (Kansas City and Minnesota).

Of course, losing to the Pats in Week 4 can be atoned for when Buffalo visits New England in December. But the team the Bills see then could look completely different come Week 13.

Hampered Pats

Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) makes a catch against New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) during the first half at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Some of New England’s best players did not suit up in the win over Buffalo. All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez and DT Christian Barmore both missed the game due to injury, and WR1 A.J. Brown has been on injured reserve since suffering an ankle injury in Week 1.

That’s a trio of stars for the Pats who could have a major impact on the outcome of the next outing. They could also help take pressure off New England’s young star QB.

Drake Maye’s return to form

The most egregious piece of it all is that Maye looked like a viable NFL QB again. It seriously had gotten bad for him in this recent stretch — in the last seven games coming in, including the playoffs, the Pats' QB had turned the ball over 15 times, compared to seven total touchdowns.

While he was picked off against the Bills, he had his first three-touchdown pass game, and a game with a QBR above 90, since December 2025. He had season highs in both passing yards (269) and rushing yards (54).

Buffalo still has a strong shot at winning the AFC East, according to most sportsbooks, including Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel, which all tied for the shortest odds for the Bills at -250. But they have made it that much harder on themselves by losing to New England.

Oct 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) rushes as Buffalo Bills cornerback Dee Alford (23) defends during the second quarter at New Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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