Bills Central

Sean McDermott ignores analytics, makes in-game decisions that lead to Bills' loss

Buffalo Bills' head coach chose to punt twice when the analytics told him not to
Colin Richey|
Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott on the sidelines against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half of a game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott on the sidelines against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half of a game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

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Buffalo Bills' head coach Sean McDermott ignored analytics against the Falcons on two fourth down plays, opting to punt rather than keep Buffalo's offense on the field.

McDermott has typically been an aggressive coach when it comes to attempting fourth down conversions, regularly trusting Josh Allen and the offense to gain short yardage to move the chains. The Bills were 0/1 on fourth down on Monday night, but should've had at least two other opportunities to move the chains.

Halfway through the second quarter, Buffalo faced a 4th and 3 from their 49 yard line, following an incomplete pass intended for Tyrell Shavers. Trailing 21-7, the Bills were desperate for an answer to Atlanta's offensive onslaught, but McDermott chose to punt from midfield.

According to the punt analytics page @ben_bot_baldwin, the analytics pointed to a "strong" recommendation to go for it, with a 56% likelihood of moving the chains and the opportunity to increase their win percentage by 3.1 with a successful conversion.

In the fourth quarter, following Greg Rousseau's blocked field goal, the Bills were suddenly searching for a game-tying touchdown. Trailing 21-14, The Bills fumbled on a handoff to Elijah Moore on 3rd and 1, leading to a 4th and 5 from their own 44 yard line with 10:22 remaining in the game. Once again, the analytics strongly recommended going for it, with a 48% likelihood of moving the chains and the opportunity to increase their win percentage by 3.9.

RELATED: Joe Brady's stubborn play calls cost slumping Bills two weeks in a row

The one fourth down that the Bills failed to convert, Ty Johnson was schemed open, with Allen unable to deliver a completed flip pass due to the pressure from Atlanta's blitz.

Josh Allen flip
Oct 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) flips the ball in the air as Atlanta Falcons defensive end Jalon Walker (11) applies the defensive pressure | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Despite missing Dalton Kincaid and Joshua Palmer, offensive coordinator Joe Brady still had plenty of weapons at his disposal for short yardage situations, including Khalil Shakir, James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Elijah Moore, plus arguably the greatest short-yardage QB in NFL history in Josh Allen.

There were a myriad of reasons why the Bills lost on Monday night, with the majority stemming from on-field execution. McDermott's conservative choices, however, prevented Buffalo from capitalizing on a potential +7 swing in win percentage.

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Colin Richey
COLIN RICHEY

Colin Richey is a die-hard Buffalo sports fan. He contributes weekly game recaps for BuffaloFAMBase.com during Bills season, and can be found on ESPN+ calling Canisius sporting events from the broadcast booth. You can find him on Twitter/X at @whatthef00tball

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