Broncos Dethrone Chiefs as AFC West Betting Favorites—What Lies Ahead

The AFC West worm has turned, but what does the rest of the schedule have in store for the Broncos and Chiefs?

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 1: Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes shake hands after the Broncos beat the Chiefs. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Sean Payton stopped short of calling the Denver Broncos' rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs a "must-win" game, but the stakes were about as high as they could get at the mid-season point.

The Broncos came out on top 28-24 on Sunday, overcoming an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Chiefs and overtake them as the AFC West leaders. At 6-2, the Broncos are winners of four in a row and are in the driver's seat in the division.

Even the oddsmakers see the Broncos as the new favorites to win the AFC West. DraftKings Sportsbook has Denver as -130 favorites, with the Chiefs at +115, the Las Vegas Raiders at +2500, and the Los Angeles Chargers at +1500.

Denver's Road Ahead

Sean Payton and Bo Nix talk. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As the defending AFC West champions, the Broncos were always going to draw a first-place schedule in 2026. Add to that the rotation of the AFC West drawing the NFC West and AFC East on the schedule this season, and the Broncos' road to repeating as division champs got a little tougher.

Then the NFL front-loaded the Broncos' schedule with most of their toughest opponents coming through the first eight weeks. The NFC West and AFC East produced five playoff teams last season. The Broncos played all four NFC West opponents within the first seven weeks, going 3-1 against them, losing only to the San Francisco 49ers.

The Chiefs in Week 8 were the last big test to end the Broncos' brutal first-half-of-the-season gauntlet, and they passed with flying colors. Now, the Broncos' schedule opens up dramatically.

The Broncos will go on the road this week to face the 3-4 Carolina Panthers, followed by their Week 10 bye. From there, it's home against the 4-4 Raiders in Week 11, then back on the road to play the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers on Black Friday.

The Steelers have out-kicked their coverage thus far, so that game could end up being tougher than it appeared to be at first glance. The Broncos then come back home to host the 1-6 Miami Dolphins in Week 12, followed by a two-game road trip to play the 2-6 New York Jets and the Raiders.

That's when the schedule begins to stiffen again. The Broncos come home for a Week 16 game on Christmas Day against the 6-1 Buffalo Bills, followed by a road trip to face the 5-3 New England Patriots, and a home stand against the winless Chargers in the season finale.

The Steelers, Bills, and Patriots could be tough, but if the Broncos take care of business, and beat the teams they're supposed to, they could hit Week 16 at 12-2 or 11-3 at worst. The Chiefs, though, have a much more treacherous road ahead.

Kansas City's Road Ahead

Patrick Mahomes evades the rush. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The next three weeks aren't too bad for the Chiefs, with a home game against the Jets, a road trip to face the 3-5 Atlanta Falcons, and then back home to play the 3-5 Arizona Cardinals. But it gets gnarly from there.

From Week 12 on, the Chiefs will play the Bills, Patriots, 49ers (6-1), and Raiders at home, and the Los Angeles Rams (4-4), Cincinnati Bengals (5-2), and Chargers on the road. It's about as a brutal a closing stretch as the Broncos' initial schedule was.

The difference is that, in theory, by the time a team hits its stretch run, it's had the chance to build up a callus to begin peaking at the right time before the playoffs. The Broncos went from summer football straight into a playoff guantlet, which forced them to quickly build a callus against such fierce resistance training.

The Takeaway

As I wrote when the NFL first dropped the schedule last spring, the Broncos' initial slate of games could be a blessing in disguise — so long as they emerge from Week 8 no worse than 4-4. The Broncos did even better than that, and that's why they're in firm control of the division from here on out.

As the Broncos emerge from the first half of the season, Bo Nix has regained his confidence after suffering a fractured ankle in the playoffs. Rookie running back Jonah Coleman has emerged as a bona fide RB1, and the Broncos have much bigger plans for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

Vance Joseph's defense is getting healthier, and has done an amazing job of keeping the who's-who list of elite NFL quarterbacks at bay long enough for Nix and the offense to get their fourth-quarter licks in and win games.

Nobody will want to face the Broncos down the stretch.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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