Jensen’s Judgment: Broncos Have a Bo Nix Problem They Must Fix Fast

I hate to say it, but the Denver Broncos have a quarterback problem.

Before anyone knee-jerk reacts and loses their teeth, understand that I'm actually a firm believer in Bo Nix. I see him as the very franchise quarterback the Broncos desperately searched for for nearly a decade after Peyton Manning retired. The Broncos finally found their guy in Nix, but a few games into his third year, there's no denying that he's in a slump.

In the Broncos' 24-14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Nix went 25-of-42 for 214 yards and a touchdown. In a vacuum, those aren't terrible numbers — but digging a little deeper, 14 of those completions were to running backs, and only two of his passes traveled farther than 10 yards.

It's hard to win in the NFL that way, and against the best of the best? Forget it.

The Broncos have managed to start the season 2-2, despite facing arguably the four best teams in the league, but if the coaches can't snap Nix out of his funk, things could quickly spin out of control.

What I'm Seeing

Bo Nix. — Bo Nix breaks the pocket, looking to pass. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One of the hallmarks of Nix's first two NFL seasons was his poise. Not just pocket poise, but his overall confidence and cool, calm demeanor. No situation or opponent was too big for him, and the Broncos won a lot of games because of him.

That poise allowed Nix to pass for north of 7,500 yards and 50 touchdowns, and helped lead the Broncos to 24 regular-season wins. Now, that's not to say that Nix never showed the foibles of a young quarterback, because of course he did, but his poise in the pocket and under pressure helped lead this team out of the AFC West doldrums.

We're not seeing that poise of late, though. Nix looks spooked out there; he bails clean pockets, looks to escape way too early, and seems just on the edge of panic for 85% of his snaps. A panicked person isn't a poised person or a good decision-maker, and it takes a poised player to lead a team as its quarterback.

So, why does Nix suddenly look so uncomfortable out there? I can't say for sure, but it's likely a combination of his return from two ankle surgeries this past offseason, the vagaries of playing for a new play-caller, and the tier-one level of competition the Broncos have faced thus far.

We could break it down further and point to the Broncos' lack of a run game and the fact that this offensive line is allowing more pressure on Nix than at any point in his young career. We could even throw in the moving pieces of working in a new wideout — Jaylen Waddle — as another potential factor affecting Nix's presence of mind.

The bottom line, though, is that Nix seems reluctant to push the ball down the field. After all, he leads the NFL in passes behind the line of scrimmage, per Next Gen Stats.

Bo Nix attempts through 4 weeks, per @SumerSports:

37 — Behind line of scrimmage
46 — 0-5 yards
23 — 6-10 yards
29 — 11+ yards

Leads league in passes behind line of scrimmage so far this season. pic.twitter.com/YaqqjhSsVd
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 5, 2026

On top of that, Nix is obviously hesitant to use his legs beyond the scope of buying time, too, which is understandable, given how he injured his ankle last January, but eminently unhelpful in digging out of this slump.

The kid is juggling a lot, and I don't know if Nix's season-opening performance against the Kansas City Chiefs — in which he threw an interception on his first pass of the season and fumbled three times (losing one) — has something to do with it, but he seems far more focused on not turning the ball over than he is on trying to make a play.

That might sound too reductive, but we already know that ball security and avoiding the negative play are two of Nix's superpowers. They were a big part of what attracted Sean Payton and the Broncos to Nix as a draft prospect in 2024.

Any coach can appreciate the care and concern with which Nix protects the football and generally avoids negative plays, like sacks. But any coach should also be able to see that, like all good things, it can be taken too far and become a bad thing. It genuinely seems to be inhibiting his ability to push the ball downfield and put up points.

Again, I'll point to the insane level of competition the Broncos have faced so far as an explanation, in part, but this offense ranks 27th in yards per game, 24th in yards per play, and 27th in points per game — all bottom-10 stats — for a reason. It doesn't help that Denver is also fielding the 29th-ranked rushing attack, but as Payton himself said at the podium following Sunday's loss to the 49ers, things "aren't clicking" offensively.

What Must Change

Payton, offensive coordinator Davis Webb, and quarterbacks coach Logan Kilgore need to figure out what Nix is seeing out there and get to the bottom of why he's been so conservative with the ball, outside of a handful of plays here and there, mostly against Jacksonville in Week 2.

The film from Week 4 illustrates in living color how hesitant Nix was to throw the ball beyond five yards. It was one checkdown to a running back after another, and it's not just because the 49ers ran a two-high shell so much, as Payton would have you believe.

Nix left a lot of money on the table, so to speak. Our Lance Sanderson broke it down in this week's Film Room article: Nix passed up some big plays to take the safe checkdown. That's like stepping over a dollar to pick up a dime.

Coaches and quarterbacks often say, "You can't go broke taking a profit." And there's truth to it when it comes to the craft of quarterbacking, but horizontal checkdowns do not an offense make.

56% of Nix's completions last week were of the horizontal variety, and that's not counting screens to wideouts. Meanwhile, the talent of a Pro Bowl receiver coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons — Courtland Sutton — is being squandered, as is Waddle's explosive downfield ability, which the Broncos paid dearly to acquire. Not to mention tight end Evan Engram, whose snap share has increased dramatically while his touches have declined in equal measure.

I get it; quarterbacks have to walk the razor's edge of protecting the ball while also capitalizing on opportunities to push it downfield, even if it puts it in harm's way. It's a pickle, but that's what Nix signed up for as an NFL quarterback. The best passers are able to walk that narrow line and thrive, and we've seen him do it countless times.

We know Nix can do it, but it's not happening consistently in Year 3, and that's alarming. Nobody wants to see him regress, but the red flags are there.

Again, though, with the strength of this early-season schedule, it's hard to know exactly how much to attribute to the level of competition the Broncos have faced, how much falls on Nix's shoulders, and how much blame falls on Payton and Webb.

The Takeaway

That's why Payton and his coaches make the big bucks; it's their job to figure out what's holding Nix back and get him on track. We can continue to lament the Broncos' slow offensive starts each game, but until the coaches get to the bottom of why Nix seems so flustered and hesitant, they'll keep sputtering out of the gate.

If the Broncos' coaching brain trust can understand what Nix is seeing and help him snap out of it, everything else will fall into place offensively. The Broncos will only go as far as their quarterback can take them, and if Payton and company don't help conjure a Nix epiphany soon, this team might not survive long enough to weather the first eight-week storm and benefit from the significantly easier schedule it has from Week 9 on.

It hasn't been all bad from Bo. His second-half performances against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Rams were special, and the one touchdown drive he put together in each game against the Chiefs and 49ers hints that the quarterback we all know still lurks inside him.

It's on Payton and the coaches to draw out the quarterback we know Nix can be and translate it to the field for 60 minutes each game. Whether it's points of coaching emphasis or Xs and Os, Payton and Webb are running out of time to fix this before half the season is suddenly in the rearview.

If the Broncos don't make it to Week 9 at 4-4 or better, I shudder to imagine how it'll affect their standing in the AFC West, let alone their Super Bowl ambitions. The Los Angeles Chargers are in a tailspin, but the Chiefs are undefeated, and the likelihood increases by the week that the Las Vegas Raiders are for real.

The Broncos can't afford to limp out to a 3-5 start. And that could be what awaits this team if Nix doesn't turn the ship around fast. He's been that bad.

But I know he's got it in him. And here's the thing: if anyone can extract the Bo Nix Broncos Country has come to know and trust and right the ship, it's Payton.

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