Latest Riley Moss Prediction Points to Big Payday

The Denver Broncos have yet to extend fourth-year cornerback Riley Moss.

Although training camp and the preseason are in the books, the Broncos have yet to re-sign Moss — or any other player for that matter. GM George Paton extended three players between July and early September last summer, but despite several worthy players entering a contract year — including Moss — all has been quiet on that front at Broncos HQ.

Of all the worthy players with expiring contracts this year, Moss rises to the surface as perhaps the most valuable, given his position as a boundary cornerback, but perhaps the Broncos' reticence to extend him has something to do with his value. We've projected that Moss could command upwards of $20 million per year on a new deal, and the latest prediction comes via ESPN's Seth Walder.

"Cornerback Riley Moss will command a $17 million per year contract -- the same AAV as the deal Jaylen Watson signed with the Rams this offseason -- either re-signing with Denver or as a free agent. Moss is best known as the cornerback opposite Surtain, but if he can get the penalties under control (he led cornerbacks in penalty yards last season) I think he will be viewed as a valuable cornerback if he hits the free agent market," Walder wrote.

Fly in the Ointment: Penalties

Walder classified his prediction as "bold," but I don't think it is. Moss is one of the NFL's best No. 2 cornerbacks, and as it stands, he's viewed as one of the NFL's top 20 pending free agents for 2027. What makes his production all the more impressive is how he acquits himself as the player opposite Patrick Surtain II.

Whoever that corner is opposite Surtain on the boundary is always going to get a lot of business. There's a reason Moss finished last season with a career high 19 pass breakups. Opponents would much rather target Moss than Surtain, but were it not for the penalty issue, it wouldn't avail them.

Opponents became way too comfortable running a deep route on Moss on third-and-long because so often, it would pay off with a spot-foul penalty, even if the pass wasn't completed. His penalties reached critical mass last season ahead of the Broncos' bye week, but he resolved to spend the extra time over the break getting to the bottom of his technique and figuring out why the officials watched him with a magnifying glass.

A far less grabby Moss emerged on the other side of the bye, and he was able to largely avoid the penalties down the stretch and into the season. When Surtain missed three games with an injury, Moss rotated over to the No. 1 corner spot, and held it down with aplomb, and the Broncos' defense didn't skip a beat.

When it comes to the penalties and opponent targeting, that level of attention would have withered a lesser corner, but his mental toughness, short memory, and resilience allow him to focus on the next play and keep his head up.

“I think there’s a little grit and toughness," head coach Sean Payton said of Moss back in August. "He can bury the last play. He knows he’s going to get a lot of traffic and attention."

Why the Broncos Like Moss

Moss's wherewithal to hang opposite Surtain has always earned Payton's respect. That and the mental and physical toughness with which he plays the game.

"Yes, I like his toughness," Payton said of Moss. "I think it’s a tough position to play, and he doesn’t back down at all from that; his confidence doesn’t wane. That’s a really good trait.”

The Broncos had refs on hand during training camp, and one of the benefits was to keep players, like Moss, educated on what fouls and tendencies the officials will be looking for on game day. The thing with Moss is that he executes each rep admirably, with so much physicality and grit, staying with his assignment, but in Payton's opinion, it all comes down to the finish — when the ball arrives.

“I think some of it is just in the finish," Payton said. "These periods with the officials, the nuances of... Then there were some tough calls against him as well that I think go with the position. He certainly doesn’t back away from that, and I think that’s important, especially at that position.”

Moss himself has resolved publicly to put the penalty plague behind him, while also adamantly refusing to take his foot off the gas physicality-wise. That's a razor's edge to walk for any boundary corner, but he showed late last season that he can do it.

The Takeaway

Time will tell how and when Moss gets paid. But whether it's from the Broncos or an outside team, he's poised to command a serious contract. With the Broncos already paying Surtain north of $20 million per year, the front office will have to figure out how to balance another big contract at the position.

But even with Bo Nix's extension likely coming early next offseason, the Broncos will still have a two-year window until the worst of its salary-cap ramifications will be felt. The Broncos currently have just shy of $24 million in cap space.

If I've learned anything covering the NFL for more than a decade, it's this: when it comes to the salary cap, where there's a will, there's always a way. Something tells me that, barring an extension this coming week ahead of the season opener, the Broncos may look to get something done with Moss at their Week 10 bye.

Last year, Paton extended three Broncos during the bye.

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