New DVOA Rankings Send Strong Message About Broncos Entering 2026

Let's examine what the football metrics say about the 2026 Broncos.

Bo Nix calls the signals at the line of scrimmage. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

There are many takes out there on how NFL teams will fare this season. When it comes to the Denver Broncos, it's best to say that it's a mixed bag.

There are those who don't believe the Broncos will be as good as they were last year, while others still see a playoff team, even if Denver doesn't win as many games as it did last year.

And then there's the advanced metric known as DVOA, which Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy devised. While DVOA is not a definitive measure of how successful an NFL team will be, it focuses more on how efficient teams are on offense, defense, and special teams.

Schatz's 2026 projections are out, and they are favorable to the Broncos. Denver ranks fifth overall in projected DVOA: 10th in offense, fifth in defense, and 20th in special teams.

Schatz provides an explanation for how he determines the 2026 DVOA projections:

"My system starts by considering the team’s DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback," Schatz wrote. "Then I look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, age and combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason)."

2026 Variables and Factors

Bo Nix communicates the protection to the offensive line. | Manjit Narotra / IMAGO / Pro Sports Images

This year's projections include a variable for offensive lines, which Schatz notes was favorable to the Broncos on offense. As many would say, the Broncos have the best offensive line in the NFL.

Another factor that likely benefited the Broncos was their low roster turnover, with their only major loss being defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers and their only big acquisition being wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

Recent draft history has generally favored the Broncos, with significant contributors coming out of the 2023-2025 classes (though some netted more than others). Coaching experience would be another point in favor of the Broncos.

The DVOA projections also include playoff projections. The Broncos are projected to have a 64.7% chance of making the postseason. Part of the reason for that projection likely goes back to the Broncos not only playing in a tough division but also in a conference featuring plenty of quality teams outside the AFC West.

Still, 64.7% represents a good outlook for the Broncos to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that happens, but DVOA favors the Broncos as far as playoff chances go, even if it's not high.

The Takeaway

As always, what matters is the outcome of the games on the field. Teams projected to do well in any advanced statistic don't always have a strong season, while teams projected not to do well can surprise and make the playoffs.

But the DVOA projections do give an idea of how teams might fare during the season. If the Broncos live up to these projections, fans can expect another playoff trip.

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