How the Buccaneers can beat the Falcons on Thursday Night Football

It’s getting down to the wire again for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, which now faces a must-win game against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.

After a 5-1 start, the Bucs have come crashing down to earth with their annual mid-season slump. They are just 2-5 in their last seven games and now face the brink of playoff elimination if they can’t secure a victory against the Falcons. Injuries have played a major part in the Bucs' recent struggles, and while they are getting healthier with the return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, the issues on both sides of the ball go beyond just getting healthy.

The Falcons’ season is over, and they would love to play spoiler to the Bucs and keep them from their fifth straight NFC South title. Buccaneers players have said all the right things about controlling their own destiny, and they know what corrections need to be made. However, saying, knowing and doing are different things. Even still, Tampa Bay should be able to win this game, but it’s going to take a mistake-free game with everyone doing their job to the fullest. Here’s how the Bucs can beat the Falcons on Thursday Night Football.

Slow down Bijan Robinson

Captain Obvious, I know, but it's really that simple. The Falcons' offense runs through Bijan Robinson, and to a lesser extent, Tyler Allegier. Slowing the duo down will be critical to the Bucs' success on Thursday. The Bucs did a great job of limiting the rushing attack in Week 1, limiting Atlanta to just 69 total rushing yards. Robinson only gained 24 yards on the ground that game, but did record 6 receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Since then, Robinson has added 1,057 yards on the ground with 50 receptions and 500 yards through the air. The Falcons will use the short passing game as an extension of their run game and will certainly do so with Kirk Cousins under center. If the Bucs can slow down Robinson and force Cousins to move the ball through the air, it should bode well for Tampa’s chances of winning. Unless….

Protect the middle of the field

Kirk Cousins was surgical against the Buccaneers last year, carving them up for 785 yards and eight touchdowns in the season sweep. He attacked the middle of the field with urgency last season, completing 75% of his passes and accounting for almost half of his throws to that area, per Pro Football Focus. Tight end Kyle Pitts went off against the Bucs, securing 11 receptions on 13 targets for 179 yards and two scores.

Bowles' heavy use of zone coverages has allowed seams open in between the linebackers for teams to take advantage of. Per NextGen Stats, opponents are targeting the Bucs in the middle of the field about 40% of the time, higher than the league average. The defense is allowing a 71% completion record on throws to the middle of the field under 10 yards. This is compounded by the Bucs' tackling issues, which have helped fuel underneath gains and third-down conversions. Between the intermediate and deep levels of the field, the defense has given up 13 touchdowns on the season. Cousins is limited, but he knows exactly where the Bucs' weakness is and will be sure to attack it on Thursday Night Football, especially with starting linebacker SirVocea Dennis ruled out.

Sustain drives!

The Bucs have been horrid this year on third down. After leading the league in completion percentage last season on the pivotal down, they have dropped all the way to 19th, completing just 68 of 177 attempts, and were just 3-13 in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. Making matters worse is the Bucs' ineffectiveness when going for it on fourth down. Against the Saints, they were 2-7, but on the season, they are 11 of 27 with several goal-line stops against their resume.

Working in the Bucs' favor is that Atlanta has had their own struggles defending the drive-sustaining down. They are ranked 18th in the NFL with just a 39.5 stop rate. With Evans back in the fold and dictating coverages, it should allow the Bucs to move Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin around in advantageous positions to help improve their putrid third-down offense.

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