Why a Buccaneers Loss vs. Packers Could Doom Tampa Bay's Season

Things are not going well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — that's easy to see. The team is 0-3, and head coach Todd Bowles' seat could not be hotter as the Green Bay Packers are set to come to town for Week 4.

The Bucs are still looking for their first win. The math behind starting 0-3 is already dire, and the Bucs have a massive climb if they want to get back on track and make the playoffs in 2026.

But if the Bucs lose on Sunday, that climb may not just get steeper — it might be almost impossible. Here's what the data says about NFL teams who start their season with four losses in a row:

Starting 0-4 is a Virtually a Death Knell in the NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles looks on prior to the game against the Cleveland Browns at Raymond James Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Only two teams have made the playoffs in the last 10 years starting 0-3 (both Houston Texans teams) and only six teams have ever done it in a regular-length NFL season. Naturally, starting off 0-4 is much, much worse.

Only one team in NFL history has ever made the playoffs starting 0-4. That was the 1992 San Diego Chargers, who started out 0-4 — they were beaten in all four games by an astounding margin of 95-29 before rattling off 11 wins in their next 12 games to finish 11-5. The Chargers even won their Wild Card game against the Kansas City Chiefs before being blown out 31-0 by the Dolphins in the Divisional Round.

Before then and since then, though, no NFL team has climbed out of a 0-4 hole. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are facing that very real possibility on Sunday if they lose to the Packers.

It certainly won't be easy to beat them, given the constant miscues and lapses in all three phases. But to make things worse, the Bucs will be starting a rookie quarterback, Jalon Daniels, in lieu of an injured Baker Mayfield, and it's a game Tampa Bay simply must win to stay alive.

Bowles is aware of this. From here on out, every game the Buccaneers play is a crucial one.

"It's very critical," Bowles said on Monday. "Obviously, we all know that, and we understand that as well."

The Bucs do have a bit of a unique situation — the rest of the NFC South is 1-2, so at 0-3, they're still just a game out of first place. It remains to be seen if the NFC South keeps losing alongside Tampa Bay, but the Bucs certainly cannot count on that as the season continues.

The Buccaneers will face off against the Packers at 1 p.m. in Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. And if they lose? A reckoning may arrive in Tampa Bay sooner rather than later.

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