Charger Report

Chargers given surprising playoff odds by analytics experts

A season after making the playoffs, the Los Angeles Chargers this year are given only a 51-percent chance of getting into the postseason.
Richie Whitt|
Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh (hc) during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh (hc) during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

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The good news: the Los Angeles Chargers have the sixth-best odds in the AFC to make this season's playoffs.

The bad news: two of the other top seven teams play in their AFC West division.

MORE: Chargers still mentioned among top NFL defenses after Micah Parsons trade

According to the analytics experts over at Pro Football Focus, if the Chargers are going to make the playoffs they'll likely have to contend with - of course - the Kansas City Chiefs and - surprise - the Denver Broncos. PFF says the Chargers have a 51-percent chance to make the postseason, sixth in the AFC. Their chances are better than the Broncos (47 percent), but worse than the nine-time division champion Chiefs (71 percent).

Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have the best playoff odds at 81 percent, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (77 percent), Chiefs, Houston Texans (54 percent) and Cincinnati Bengals (52 percent).

It seems unlikely that three teams from the same division will make the playoffs, but that's exactly what happened in 2024 when the 15-2 Chiefs, 11-6 Chargers and 10-7 Broncos all made it.

MORE: Chargers announce travel plans for Week 1 vs. Chiefs in Brazil

The difficult math - and the fact they're facing Patrick Mahomes - makes Friday's season-opener against the Chiefs in Brazil that much more vital. Head coach Jim Harbaugh's team lost two tough games to K.C. last season by the scores of 17-10 and 19-17.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Chiefs defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton (98) in 2024
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton (98) in 2024 | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

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Richie Whitt
RICHIE WHITT

Richie Whitt has been a sports media fixture in Dallas-Fort Worth since graduating from UT-Arlington in 1986. His career is highlighted by successful stints in print (Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Dallas Observer), TV (NBC5) and radio (105.3 The Fan). During his almost 40-year tenure, he's blabbed and blogged on events ranging from Super Bowls to NBA Finals to World Series to Stanley Cups to Olympics to Wimbledons to World Cups. Whitt has been covering the NFL since 1989, and in 1993 authored The 'Boys Are Back, a book chronicling the Dallas Cowboys' run to Super Bowl XXVII.

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