NFL playoff percentages put Chargers in a tough spot based on remaining schedule

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The Los Angeles Chargers have dug themselves quite a hole in the NFL playoffs standings outlook. 

That is, at least compared to the start of the season when they looked like AFC West favorites after sweeping the entire division. 

Now? The Chargers are just 7-4. The concerning part isn’t so much the percentage chances Justin Herbert’s team can still make the playoffs, or even the remaining schedule itself. 

More than anything, the concern for the Chargers is how they’ve dropped three games in blowout, ugly fashion against beatable opponents. 

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NFL playoff percentages, odds for Chargers

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A winning record still has the Chargers in control of their playoff destiny, at least at face value. 

As Chargers.com’s Eric Smith pointed out, The Athletic still gives the Chargers a 64 percent chance. ESPN is right behind at 63 percent. The chance stays at an even 60 percent when looking at the numbers from NFL’s Next Gen Stats. 

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Mathematically speaking, the Chargers need to come out with roughly three wins to make the playoffs, with the schedule looking like this: 

• Week 13: vs. Las Vegas
• Week 14: vs. Philadelphia 
• Week 15: at Kansas City
• Week 16: at Dallas
• Week 17: vs. Houston
• Week 18: at Denver

Even that 5-5 Houston team that looked to be dead in the water is now a threat. And given how the Chargers have fallen flat in the face of obvious trap games this season, it’s fair for fans to wonder if another flip like the Jacksonville loss could be waiting there near the end of the season. 

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