AFC Championship Win Proved Once Again That Patrick Mahomes Has No True Peer

In each of the past two regular seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have earned a reputation as a team that did enough to eke out wins without dominating their opponents. With their foes being inferior, the back-to-back Super Bowl champions played a brand of football that suggested they were performing below the level of their true potential.

The same optics, in many ways, could be applied to quarterback Patrick Mahomes. With a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown campaign from 2018 and a scorching 2022 effort on his resume, why did he just average 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in consecutive years while allowing other signal-callers like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen to either win or push for major accolades? Why did Mahomes get a pass for going from posting historically great numbers to seeing his production blend in with that of others?

It's because traditional box score numbers don't tell the entire story. Not only that, but regular-season traditional box score numbers certainly don't. The postseason is a whole new ballgame; Mahomes and his performance over the weekend are perfect examples of that. Even in a 245-yard, one-touchdown passing showing against the Buffalo Bills in Sunday's AFC championship game victory, the two-time MVP sent a clear reminder.

The keys to the football world still belong to Mahomes, and everyone else is simply existing. He has no real peer, regardless of what can be spun into a slump in games that carry less importance. In do-or-die scenarios, no one can be trusted to outlive a defensive onslaught more often or better than him, full-stop.

If you're looking for advanced statistical excellence, Mahomes provided it in bunches during the conference title game. According to Next Gen Stats, he posted the best dropback success rate (65%) and overall dropback EPA (21.5) of his season. Sheil Kapadia of The Ringer notes that four games all year featured a higher clip of successful plays from a quarterback. Mahomes's playoff career now contains a staggering seven games with an EPA/play average over 0.5, which is more than twice the number of the next-closest player.

What about situational distinction? Mahomes offered plenty of that, too. Kansas City converted on 56% of its third downs faced on Sunday evening, also going a perfect 1-for-1 on fourth downs and maximizing four of six trips to the red zone. Their EPA/pass average on early downs was a tremendous 0.51, only to be literally doubled (1.02) on late downs. As he has seemingly countless times in his postseason tenure, Mahomes poured in some rushing work as well. A fourth-and-1 scramble for six yards, a third-and-1 rush for a touchdown and a fourth-quarter tote for another score served as high-leverage proof.

The icing on the cake is who Mahomes did this against. Allen, the MVP front-runner for most of the regular season, is regarded by many as the next-best thing. Heck, this very writer described him as "equally capable of extending plays, avoiding sacks and putting on the proverbial Superman cape at his peak" in comparison to Mahomes in the days leading up to the game.

That's the kicker, though: Allen didn't play at his peak when it mattered the most. He's going home with his fourth playoff loss to Kansas City and no trophies and seems to be set to lose the aforementioned MVP to Jackson. Even someone as gifted and brilliant as him routinely falls victim to the same fate while the sample size grows. Jackson experienced it a year ago, and Joe Burrow has also witnessed it sans the lone terrible half of postseason football in Mahomes's career.

As the Chiefs' organizational legend grows, Mahomes is the driving force behind that. He's off to the best start to a career in league history, which transcends not only his current rivals but puts him in conversations with a select few all-time greats regardless of what Super Bowl LIX brings.

Some say Mahomes is the Grim Reaper. In many regards, he's similar to Michael Myers in the "Halloween" series. No matter how fast you think you're running or how far away you seem to be, he'll find you. When he does, it's impossible to get rid of him completely. In the NFL's modern scary movie, everyone is chasing Mahomes but he only seems to be pursuing the ghost of Tom Brady.

Even dub him Kermit the Frog if you dare. These days, all playoff paths seem to lead to the same unavoidable destination anyway.

https://t.co/l8yksh2rWx pic.twitter.com/rgh5x6aSUs
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) January 27, 2025

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