Chiefs Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Team Against Dolphins in Week 3

Following back-to-back wins to open the regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs have a significant opportunity in front of them on Sunday. While they might not be facing a premier opponent, the chance to get to 3-0 on the year should be just as enticing nonetheless.

Head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the gang hit the road for the first time this year, traveling to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins in the afternoon window. Although Miami is sitting at 0-2 and is in the early stages of what could be a grueling rebuild, could the hosts still possibly pull off an upset?

Let's break down how both sides match up and put a bow on this Week 3 preview with a confidence meter rating on a scale ranging from 1-10.

Chiefs' offense vs. Dolphins' defense

In the early stages of the season, the Chiefs have pushed just the right buttons on the offensive side of the ball. With Reid at the helm, this remains a pass-happy offense, but he's making the correct adjustments situationally. According to nfelo, Kansas City ranks seventh with a +3.2% pass rate over expected, a decent cry from 2025's 4.0% mark that ranked second leaguewide.

A huge difference is the addition of running back Kenneth Walker III, who's handled a serious workload and remained insanely effective anyway. He and rookie Emmett Johnson should be able to find success against a middle-of-the-pack run defense (at best), which plays directly into the hands of a specific two-time NFL MVP.

Mahomes could go nuclear in this one if the game script allows it. Per SumerSports, no defense allows a higher EPA per pass mark than the Dolphins at 0.46. This is a pass rush that sits 28th in the sport with a 28.6% pressure rate, so there's no reason to worry about No. 15 being under duress on Sunday afternoon.

Coordinator Sean Duggan's group struggles to get off the field in do-or-die situations, too, as it's 26th in third-down conversion efficiency (50.0%) and 29th in the red zone (88.9%). If the Chiefs can't move the ball in some way, shape or form against this defense, that says much more about the ineptitude of the visitors.

Chiefs' defense vs. Dolphins' offense

It's hard to get a read on what the true identity of the Chiefs' defense is. On one hand, it held the Denver Broncos to just 10 points in the regular-season opener and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo appears to have the answers to the test. On the flip side, Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Daniel Jones was blitzed on over half of his Week 2 dropbacks and shredded KC to the tune of 30 points.

The real value of Kansas City is probably somewhere in the middle, especially considering how many young players are getting snaps on that end. There's isn't a much better matchup to get back on track than this unassuming Dolphins crew.

Courtesy of Jefe's Handiwork, we can see that Miami is 26th in offensive success rate (37.4%) and 28th in series conversion rate (60.5%). Quarterback Malik Willis has taken seemingly countless sacks already and hasn't been proficient early in his tenure with the team. On top of that, rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas, a starter on the boundary, is out with an ankle injury after racking up 113 receiving yards in his first two contests.

Any hopes the Dolphins have lie with running back De'Von Achane, who led the NFL with an average of 5.7 yards per carry in 2025. Unfortunately for him, 2026 hasn't been nearly as kind, as that mark is down to 3.5 and his success rate of 29.0% is the third-lowest of any halfback with at least 20 tries entering Week 3 (NFL Pro).

The Chiefs did fail to bottle up Colts star back Jonathan Taylor in Week 2, so maybe there is a narrow path to production on the ground for Miami. It's just hard to see the Kansas City defense being so bad that its offense can't score enough points to offset it.

How special are the special teams?

Chris Tabor may be in year No. 1 as the Dolphins' special teams coordinator, but it's a role he's held dating all the way back to 2011 across stints with the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears (twice) and Cleveland Browns. With that said, the results still have yet to align with the experience. The Fins sit in the 19th percentile with a collective -7.79 special teams EPA on the year.

Miami ranks right in the middle of the league (16th) in average starting field position at 31.1 yards. On defense, it's second-to-last at 36.2. Part of that can be chalked up to the offense stalling out, yet there's plenty of blame to go around.

Kicker Riley Patterson is 4-for-6 on field goals. Punter Bradley Pinion owns the fourth-worst EPA mark at his position. You'll recognize the name at the top of the list:

Week 2 Punter Rankings: there's a reason they call him the punt god pic.twitter.com/dWE7NNcjj2
— Puntalytics (@ThePuntRunts) September 22, 2026

One player to keep an eye on could be running back Jaylen Wright, who has a 79-yard kickoff return this year but is doubtful after missing Friday's practice with a stinger/foot designation.

Chiefs Week 3 confidence meter: 9.9

Out of respect for the "any given Sunday" nature of the NFL and in an abundance of caution after seeing the Chiefs play down to the level of their competition in the past, I'll probably never dish out a perfect 10 score on the confidence meter.

This is as close to a slam dunk of a pick as there will ever be, though.

The Kansas City offense should be able to get whatever it wants on Sunday, whether it be on the ground or through the air. Defensively, even if the pass rush doesn't get home to Willis at volume or the secondary blows a coverage or two, Miami is lacking playmaking talent and doesn't have the coaching to make up for any of it.

First-time head coach Jeff Hafley appears to be installing the right kind of culture down in South Beach, yet this is a franchise that's clearly focused on building for 2027 and beyond. If you're the Chiefs, you have much bigger fish to fry and simply cannot afford not to take care of business here on the road.

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