ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Chiefs vs. Broncos MNF Matchup

Which team does the ESPN Matchup Predictor favor in the Chiefs' Week 1 matchup against the Broncos?

Dec 25, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) after the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The highly anticipated matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football is just three days away from kicking off. Andy Reid's squad will welcome back Patrick Mahomes for his first game since suffering a torn ACL, which will undoubtedly rile up the Chiefs faithful at Arrowhead Stadium.

There are a lot of questions about Kansas City heading into the campaign, but it is expected to bounce back from a lackluster six-win season a year ago. There's no better way to start the season than with a victory over a bitter division rival.

While the Chiefs enter this contest as a slight favorite, what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor believe will transpire?

Broncos at Chiefs: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

Jul 29, 2026; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) talks with head coach Andy Reid during training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The matchup predictor gives the Chiefs a nearly three-fifths chance to come out victorious on Monday. Given how ESPN's model typically accounts for home-field advantage, that percentage suggests the two teams are viewed as relatively even heading into the season.

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Chiefs 58.6%, Broncos 41.1%.

Chiefs On SI's Take

It feels right for the Chiefs to be favored in the season opener at Arrowhead. Denver has always been a tough opponent for Coach Reid and Co., but there'd be no better way to cap off Mahomes' return than with a win.

People are putting a lot of stock in Josh Simmons' expected absence and the projected starter in his place (Kahlil Benson). To me, if Kansas City isn't a good team without Simmons on the field, it isn't a good team period. There's no reason why a non-quarterback missing one game should cripple the entire offense.

On the other side of the ball, Denver has a new weapon in speedster Jaylen Waddle that it cannot wait to unleash. He and X receiver Courtland Sutton will be a huge test for an inexperienced Chiefs cornerback room behind Mansoor Delane and Nohl Williams.

All eyes will be on Mahomes to guide the offense to success, but this game will be won in the trenches. Whatever Kansas City has to do to protect their Mount Rushmore quarterback, whether it be double-teaming Nik Bonitto or putting six linemen on the field, they have to do it.

The Chiefs have an excellent chance at winning this game if they lead the ground attack with newly signed running back Kenneth Walker III and keep the ball away from Denver.

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