How Many Yards Will Patrick Mahomes Throw For in 2020?

Patrick Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards in his MVP 2018 season. Hampered by injury, he threw for just over 4,000 in 2019. His over/under for 2020? Smack dab in the middle.

Depending on where you get your lines, Vegas has more or less split the difference on Mahomes' 2020 projection. We have the line right at 4,499.5, so 4.5k hits the over.

I fully expect Mahomes to sail over that number, barring injury.

Mahomes ended up crossing the 4,000-yard mark in 13 and a half games last season. In relief, Matt Moore racked up 659 yards through the air. This one really isn't that complicated. If Mahomes' kneecap stays in place, this is a win.

The only counter-argument here is in the Chiefs' selection of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. While virtually everyone agrees that Edwards-Helaire fits perfectly in the Chiefs' offense, could a first-round running back take the ball out of the hands of Mahomes?

Quite the opposite, in fact. While Edwards-Helaire may make Andy Reid a bit more willing to keep the ball on the ground in some situations, going to CEH through the air will be the offense's new interesting wrinkle for 2020. While Damien Williams also remains strong in the role of a pass-catching running back, the Chiefs have told the league that Edwards-Heilare is going to add another dynamic element to the offense, based on how highly they drafted him.

Plus, the Chiefs have retained all of their top-tier pass-catchers. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were never in doubt, but they restructured the contract of Sammy Watkins to keep him in Kansas City for another year and re-signed Demarcus Robinson. Plus, the addition of new tight end Ricky Seals-Jones gives Mahomes yet another pass-catching option in an incredibly talented offense.

As a general rule for Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense: take the over.