Colts' Jonathan Taylor and Quenton Nelson May Test 2027 Free Agency

2026 free agency is essentially over, with the NFL draft starting in just 20 days. The Indianapolis Colts weren't as successful as they likely wanted; they watched some big names leave for other teams.

Some of those include defensive end Kwity Paye, safety Nick Cross, and offensive tackle Braden Smith. However, Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame forecasts which Colts players could test the market next year in 2027.

The names he lists are critical, and if they walk, could change the fabric of the team. Those superstars are Jonathan Taylor and Quenton Nelson.

Let's break down what Verderame had to say on each player, followed by some analysis on what could happen with the situations.

Verderame ranks the chance that these players hit the market on a scale of 0-5.

Jonathan Taylor (3)

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor runs out from the tunnel. — Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) takes the field for a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

"Although it’s rare to see a team give two significant, non-rookie contracts to a running back, Taylor might break the mold, considering his age and production. Without him, the Colts don’t have a functional offense."

Taylor has become the go-to option for Indy's offense, regardless of who's calling the plays or coaching the team. Below are his metrics per coach.

Frank Reich and Jeff Saturday (2020-2022)

53 games
925 attempts
4,582 rushing yards
5.0 yards per attempt
257 first down runs
40 rushing TDs, 4 receiving TDs

Shane Steichen (2023-Current)

41 games
795 attempts
3,757 rushing yards
4.7 yards per attempt
197 first down runs
36 rushing TDs, 4 receiving TDs

As these numbers show, it doesn't matter what the current state of Indianapolis' offense is; Taylor will be the bell-cow back to help propel the squad to success.

Yes, Verderame places a 3 on Taylor, indicating an 'average' chance that he tests the market. Some may think this is lunacy with how much the Colts rely on him, but what happens with Taylor in 2027 depends on what the Colts can achieve in 2026.

It may also depend on his ability to keep up this level of work, as most running backs around Taylor's age start to see regression.

However, despite three seasons of 300-plus carries, including his immense workload in college, Taylor has shown no signs of this to date.

I miss watching Jonathan Taylor play football on Sundays
pic.twitter.com/yrhHtoMplU
— SleeperColts (@SleeperColts) March 15, 2026

If Indianapolis looks solid and can somehow replicate what got them off to an impressive 8-2 start, it's hard to imagine the team will even let him test the market.

However, if things fall apart for Shane Steichen and the Colts finish with another mediocre record or miss the playoffs, perhaps CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon will favor tearing down the current setup and provide a restart at running back.

Verderame has my support, placing a 3 on Taylor. While he might regress this year, let's assume he doesn't, especially since he still appeared like a piston in 2025 (1,963 yards from scrimmage, 20 all-purpose touchdowns).

I believe it makes more sense to say the outcome of this season will factor into whether Indianapolis lets Taylor check out his options in free agency next season.

Quenton Nelson (5)

Colts guard Quenton Nelson walks on the field before a game. — Nov 30, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson (56) warms up before a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

"Nelson will turn 31 going into next season, so he’ll be looking at a lucrative, multi-year deal. However, with the Colts now paying huge money to Daniel Jones, Sauce Gardner, Alec Pierce and others, Indianapolis may decide to let the eight-time Pro Bowler test free agency if he’s looking to reset the guard market."

While I agreed with Verderame on his entry with Taylor, I am on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to Nelson earning a 5, which indicates Verderame thinks there's a near 100-percent chance the Colts let him test the market next season.

Nelson has been with Indianapolis for all eight of his NFL seasons, and in that span has become one of the best overall offensive linemen, regardless of the position in the trenches.

Nelson has accumulated a Hall of Fame resume already, posting eight Pro Bowls, three First-Team All-Pros, and three Second-Team All-Pros.

Nelson is on the final year of his four-year, $80 million deal. That appears to be a massive contract, but currently, Nelson is fifth among left guards in annual contract average, per Over the Cap. Below are the names ahead of the future Canton occupant.

Tyler Smith (Cowboys) | $24,000,000
Elgton Jenkins (Browns) | $24,000,000
Luke Goedeke (Buccaneers) | $22,500,000
Landon Dickerson (Eagles) | $21,000,000

With this information in hand, all signs point to Nelson getting a massive deal that could become the top contract for all NFL guards, which I believe Indianapolis will be willing to pay.

Yes, Indianapolis re-signed Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce to big contracts. Regardless, I have a gut feeling the Colts organization will do everything possible to keep Nelson in a Colts uniform for the rest of his career.

#Colts LG Quenton Nelson was named a 2025 second-team All-Pro.

He is now a three-time, second-team All-Pro and three-time, first-team All-Pro in his first eight years. Nelson has also made the Pro Bowl in each of his first eight years.

The Hall of Fame awaits him one day.
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) January 10, 2026

Nelson continued his dominance in 2025, and his Pro Football Focus offensive blocking grades support that argument. Out of 81 eligible guards for grading, Nelson posted the following marks and never fell below 12th place.

Overall | 84.5 (4th)
Run blocking | 84.3 (4th)
Pass blocking | 73.2 (12th)

Nelson also allowed only one sack on 637 pass-blocking snaps, which is an incredible feat considering that's his weakness in relation to his run-blocking prowess.

I can't imagine any scenario where the Colts let Nelson check out free agency, unless he has a dropoff of epic proportions.

Even if Indianapolis falls apart at the seams this season, leading to a franchise overhaul from Irsay-Gordon, Nelson is already one of the greatest guards to ever grace the NFL.

I can sleep well at night with my prediction that he'll never leave the Circle City.

Sign Up For the Colts Daily Digest - OnSI’s Indianapolis Colts Newsletter