Inside AFC South: Contract-Year Players

The NFL regular season is about to begin, but some key players are already thinking beyond 2020.

The AFC South Division has several players entering contract years. A few are going to get paid to stay put because they’re keepers, perhaps before the end of this season but several need strong seasons to make a statement to land a lucrative contract.

Here’s a look around the AFC South at the top players who are entering the final years of their contracts:

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Houston Texans

Anthony Wood/TexansDaily

The Texans have a number of high-priced pending free agents they will be aiming to tie down. Most notably, quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been in discussions with the team for months. There are two other key contributors they will be keeping a particularly close eye on in 2020.

Linebacker Zach Cunningham was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2019 after leading the Texans in total tackles for the second straight season. Combining his reliability with his defensive abilities in the run game and improving pass coverage means he will command a high price should he continue on his current trajectory.

With fellow Texans linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Whitney Mercilus both on $50+ million deals, the organization might have to make a tough choice in deciding whether or not they can afford to keep three high-priced linebackers. If not, there will be speculation about someone like McKinney being placed on the trade block.

The second player to watch is wide receiver Will Fuller. An undeniably talented and extremely productive player, his issue has been durability. The 26-year-old wideout from Notre Dame has yet to play a full season in four years.

He's scored 16 touchdowns in 156 receptions, and with All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins now in Arizona, the Texans will rely more heavily on Fuller. If healthy and productive, Fuller should be staying put.

Indianapolis Colts

Phillip B. Wilson, AllColts

The Colts have a lengthy list of players looking to get paid, and added another when safety Malik Hooker didn’t have his 2021 option picked up. The 2017 first-round pick says he’s motivated to prove himself worthy of a lucrative deal, but even if the inconsistent defender breaks through with his best season, he’s not going to be a top priority for general manager Chris Ballard.

Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver T.Y. Hilton are likely at the top of the list. Kelly, coming off his first Pro Bowl, should be priority No. 1. The fifth-year pro anchors one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. Don’t be surprised if his deal gets done before this season ends.

The “likely” descriptive applies to Hilton, who has been the most important weapon for much of his career — the Colts are 1-9 in games when he’s out of the lineup. Therein lies the uncertainty. Hilton has been hurt each of the past two years, missing six games with a calf injury and producing the lowest numbers of his eight-year career in 2019. He played hurt for half of the previous year, too. So although Hilton, 30, is confident the Colts are aware of his value, Ballard can’t be faulted for taking a wait-and-see approach in case Hilton gets hurt again. If so, much to Hilton’s inevitable chagrin, the dollar amount would decrease in that offer. Hilton says it will be his final contract and he wants to be “a Colt for life.”

Another reason Ballard might wait is because of other players on that list. Defensive end Justin Houston, who had a team-high 11 sacks in his first year with the Colts, says he wants to play beyond this season. If he proves to be a reliable pass rusher again, the Colts will want to keep him.

Running back Marlon Mack is coming off his first 1,000-yard season, but he will be splitting carries with second-round pick Jonathan Taylor. A so-so year for Mack, especially if Taylor is a breakout star as some have predicted, would mean he’s not going to get a huge offer. And he has missed eight games in three seasons due to injuries, so staying healthy is vital for him, too.

Middle linebacker Anthony Walker and defensive tackle/end Denico Autry are also in contract years. But it’s worth reminding that quarterback Philip Rivers and cornerback Xavier Rhodes each signed one-year deals, and would be high on the list if they play well. The 38-year-old Rivers would be as important as Kelly if he proves himself worthy of another $25 million.

Jacksonville Jaguars

John Shipley, JaguarReport

Several Jaguars are entering contract years, specifically from the 2017 draft class. A group that helped lead the Jaguars to the AFC Championship as rookies has somewhat fallen off in recent years, and now must prove their worth to the team and entire league.

Most notably, the Jaguars have fourth-year running back Leonard Fournette entering what could be his final season with the Jaguars. Jacksonville made a controversial selection when they took Fournette No. 4 overall in 2017, but he was one of the key pieces of the team's playoff run. Fournette's next two seasons would feature on-and-off consistency, though he did have a career year in 2019 in terms of rushing yards, yards per rush, receiving yards, and targets. Jacksonville declined Fournette's fifth-year option this past offseason despite his production in 2019, leading to the question about his long-term future. He’s performed well in camp and should be on the of the centerpieces to Jay Gruden's offense, but who knows if that will translate to him staying in Jacksonville on a new deal.

Offensive tackle Cam Robinson, a 2017 second-round pick, was another key member of the 2017 playoff run, starting 15 regular-season games and all three postseason games as a rookie. An ACL injury in 2018 took away his second season and made his third season a challenge, which meant 2019 was a pivotal year. Robinson has impressed in camp, but it'll be what he does on Sundays that helps determine his future with the team.

Defensive end Dawuane Smoot, a 2017 third-round pick, was one of the few members of this group that didn't make a big impact as a rookie. Smoot went two years without a sack, but he had a breakout year in 2019 with six sacks, fourth on the team. Smoot has a chance to be a full-time starter this year, and this could be his chance to earn a new deal with the team after a forgettable start to his career.

Slot receiver Dede Westbrook is another player entering a contract season, with the former fourth-rounder now fighting for snaps in Jacksonville's deep wide receiver room. Westbrook has had flashes, but has never really taken the next step as a receiver in Jacksonville, and it may be hard for him to do so in a crowded receiver room.

Tennessee Titans

David Boclair, AllTitans

Jayon Brown was a fifth-round selection in 2017 who immediately was pigeon-holed as a pass defender because – at inside linebacker – he had the speed to stay with tight ends and running backs through their routes. In three seasons he has been as good as advertised in that regard but has grown into much more.

Brown was a part-time starter in 2018, when his speed was put to use in the pass rush as much as it was the pass defense. In 2019, he was an every-down player who finished as the Titans’ third-leading tackler despite the fact that he missed two games with injuries. His tackles numbers have increased each season as have his passes defensed. He has had as many as six sacks in a season and has notched an interception in each of the last two. In last season’s AFC Championship, he logged the most snaps of any of the team’s inside linebackers.

There is no question he is going to get paid after this season. But will it be Tennessee that spends to keep him?

Nose tackle DaQuan Jones and tight end Jonnu Smith are the other most notable contract-year guys for the Titans. Jones is a seventh-year veteran and his likely replacement, Larrell Murchison was drafted this year, so it is almost certain this is his last season with Tennessee. Smith, on the other hand, is a fourth-year player who likely will be deemed irreplaceable and get another contract.

Brown is the big question. If he continues to improve, it will be difficult to imagine the defense without him. However, 2019 draft pick David Long has made great strides already and will be positioned to step in if Brown becomes a free agent.

At this point, there is no doubt about Brown’s value to the Titans’ defense. But can – or will – they pay him what he’s worth after this season?

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)