Commanders analyst explains why falling to No. 7 pick is not a disaster

ASHBURN, Va. – With a season-ending 24-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Washington Commanders achieved multiple things, including dropping their NFL Draft pick from No. 5 overall to No. 7.

That fact was not missed on the members of the Commanders’ fan base who wished to see the 2025 team suffer an additional loss in the name of setting the 2026 group up for more success.

While most will understand that NFL players will never tank, I've found in my years covering draft build-up that fans will oftentimes overstate the difference between, in this case, No. 5 and No. 7. Because the truth is, that how successful Washington is or isn’t, is not tied together with the numbered slot the pick comes in as much as some might think in instances like this one.

"In my experience...if you do a good job with your board and identify your needs, you might be getting your second-best player at seven, because it's for your team. And that, to me, is excellent value,” team analyst Logan Paulsen said via Commanders senior writer Zach Selby.

Jul 24, 2025; Ashburn, VA, USA; Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters (L) talks with Commanders head coach Dan Quinn (R) while walking off the practice field on day two of training camp at OrthoVirginia Training Center at Commanders Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The analytical view of draft value

And this is where the paths of thinking tend to deviate. Because it isn’t about picking the top name, but the right person, for the job. And with so many positions available to attack with draft capital every season, there’s no shortage of areas an NFL team can choose to fill with any given pick.

As Paulsen says, even if there’s a guy in the top six that you might have liked more than the next, as long as that next player you get at No. 7 is the right player for your team, success is going to come.

Part of the public discourse and disagreement has come with the rise of publicly available resources, Selby’s story points out.

Jimmy Johnson vs. Modern Models

Things like draft pick point scales that NFL front offices have actually used in the past give a glimpse of the process that was previously unknown. The ‘Jimmy Johnson’ model, for example, lists the difference between No. 5 and No. 7 as substantial, a “full player,” Paulsen says.

"Now, with some of these more analytically driven models, it's actually just 20 points, which is less than a seventh-round pick."

The bottom line is that in the top five and in the top seven of the NFL Draft, there are going to be players available who can be Day 1 starters for Washington. In fact, there will likely be many. But they can only get one, regardless of where that pick is, because there’s about as close to no chance as we can get that general manager Adam Peters is going to fork over the future capital needed to get a second pick in the top seven.

So, the key again is going to be getting the right player when their turn comes up.

Apr 29, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Oregon Ducks lineman Penei Sewell is displayed on the video board after being selected as the seventh pick by the Detroit Tigers during the 2021 NFL Draft at First Energy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Penei Sewell / Ja'Marr Chase parallel

In the story, Selby recalled a conversation Paulsen and co-host Jason Johnson had on their Drive to the Draft podcast, looking back to the 2021 NFL Draft as an example of this. That year, at No. 5, the Cincinnati Bengals took LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who has become one of the best in the league. At No. 7, the Detroit Lions took offensive lineman Penei Sewell, another player who is considered among the best at his position.

"Fit is important; vision for the player is extremely important. Infrastructure, coach, offense, defense, all that stuff is extremely important," says Paulsen.

The numbered spot of the pick? Not as much.

Where the position of the pick could come into play is in a trade-back scenario. "Obviously, we have a top-10 pick... which you could look to move and get more picks if the opportunity arises,” Peters said in his end of season press conference.

With the Commanders lacking a 2nd and 4th Round pick in this year’s draft, Peters could look to leverage his top-10 selection to add another in those areas at this year’s meeting. Having a top-five selection would help that effort. Though, as Paulsen pointed out, with analytics driving more and more of the discussion, the difference really could be as low as an additional seventh-round pick.

In reality, the difference between the two picks is minimal, if anything, and Washington will have the opportunity to add a blue-chip prospect to the team regardless, or cash in on a trade back that nets more opportunities to land the ‘right guys’ later on in the draft.

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