Not So 'Bold' Malachi Lawrence Sack Prediction Won't Be Easy For Cowboys Rookie To Hit

After a season in which the Dallas Cowboys posted a lackluster 35 sacks in the midst of what was an awful defensive showing for the team overall, the Cowboys need their edge rushers to step up in 2026.

Dallas revamped the group this offseason with the additions of Rashan Gary and Malachi Lawrence, both of whom join Donovan Ezeiruaku, Sam Williams, James Houston and Marist Liufau.

When it comes to Lawrence, Bleacher Report's Alex Kay has put out a "bold" prediction for the rookie and it has the UCF product posting 22 tackles, five sacks and one forced fumble in 2026.

"Lawrence developed into a true game-wrecker during his stint at UCF, racking up 19.5 sacks over his final three seasons," Kay said of the rookie. "He possesses all the tools an edge defender needs to succeed in the pros, including ideal size, length and athleticism for the position."

"2026 Stat Prediction: 22 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble," Kay added.

Kay even goes as far as to say he wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence leads all rookies in sacks.

While Kay's sack prediction for Lawrence isn't bold on paper, it actually is when you consider what he has to do to reach that number.

Malachi Lawrence's uncertain role

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Malachi Lawrence (57) goes through a drill during practice at the Ford Center. — Dallas Cowboys linebacker Malachi Lawrence. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the expectation is for a first-round pick to have a sizeable role in Year 1, that is anything but guaranteed with Lawrence.

As we sit here today, Lawrence stands to be the No. 3 edge rusher, at best. As long as he's fully recovered from his hip surgery by the time the season rolls around — and it looks like he will be — Ezeiruaku is going to be starting opposite Gary.

That leaves Lawrence competing for snaps against guys like Sam Williams and James Houston.

Williams only had one sack in 2025 but it was also his first year back from a torn ACL and we've seen him post as many as 4.5 during a season. Houston was Dallas' second-most productive edge rusher last season with 5.5 sacks.

Of course, the Cowboys would love for Lawrence to earn the spot ahead of both of those players, but it doesn't always work out that way.

The fact of the matter is, Lawrence is a total wild card and there's no telling what he'll offer in his first year, and that's especially true with Lawrence also having to learn a bunch of new things in his first season, including new techniques and a new role.

"It's been fun getting to learn a new playbook, new defense, new scheme kind of. I'm transitioning to more of an outside linebacker position than defensive end than I was at UCF in the 4-2-5," Lawrence said in May. "Learning the techniques, really."

With the Cowboys in a win-now situation, it's hard to envision Dallas running Lawrence out there over Williams and Houston consistently if he isn't playing as well as or better than they are.

One thing Lawrence has going for him is his ability to slide inside, which theoretically gives him more opportunities to see the field. But the same logic applies there: Lawrence has to show he's the better option on the interior, also, if he wants to jump veterans.

None of this is to say that Lawrence can't hit the projected stats Kay has for him, but getting there is not going to be a walk in the park, either.

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