Cowboys' Unproven Defense Gets Vote of Confidence With Analyst's Win Total Prediction

An analyst predicts the Dallas Cowboys will finish over their projected win total for 2026. Here's how they can accomplish that.

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Caleb Downs and defensive coordinator Christian Parker. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The Dallas Cowboys made several much-needed moves on the defensive side of the ball this offseason and that gives hope the Cowboys can bounce back in 2026.

Dallas sported one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season and, rightly so, owner Jerry Jones blamed the Cowboys falling short of the playoffs on that side of the ball.

In 2026, the Cowboys started their defensive revamp by firing Matt Eberflus and hiring Christian Parker. From there, Dallas wisely leaned on its new defensive coordinator and went out and got the players he wanted and needed to make his system work.

While the jury is still out on just how successful those moves will be because of the team having so many new pieces, some of which are question marks, Sports Illustrated's Gilberto Manzano is bullish on what the Cowboys have done and believes the team will finish over 9.5 wins.

Manzano believes the Cowboys' roster will be more balanced in 2026, which points to his expectation that Dallas' defense will indeed be better en route to a double-digit win season.

"The Cowboys should have more of a balanced roster with the improvements they made on defense," Manzano said. "Rookie safety Caleb Downs could provide an immediate boost, and there’s depth at edge rusher, which wasn’t the case last summer after the sudden Micah Parsons trade. 

"If the contract negotiations with George Pickens, who was hit with the franchise tag, don’t get messy and he’s available for training camp, this should again be one of the better offenses in the league after averaging 27.7 points per game last year. "

Potential Dallas Cowboys Week 1 starting defense compared to last year Week 1:

Edge: Rashan Gary
DL: Quinnen Williams
DL: Kenny Clark
Edge: Donovan Ezeiruaku/Malachi Lawrence
LB: DeMarvion Overshown
LB: Dee Winters
CB: DaRon Bland
CB: Shavon Revel/Cobie Durant
CB/S: Caleb Downs…

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) April 30, 2026

When it comes to the rest of the NFC East, Manzano sees the Philadelphia Eagles (10.5), Washington Commanders (7.5) and New York Giants (7.5) finishing under their projected win totals.

That also tells us that Manzano is a believer that the Cowboys can win their first division crown since 2023, which was also the same year Dallas last made the playoffs.

How Cowboys can finish with double-digit wins

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Caleb Downs and defensive coordinator Christian Parker. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

It will not be an easy road for the Cowboys to get to where they want to go, as Dallas sports the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL going into the regular season.

One thing helping the Cowboys is they have one of the highest net rest differentials in the NFL and Dallas was 4-1 in contests in which they had a rest advantage in 2025.

Dallas' defense ranked 30th in total yards, 32nd in passing yards, 23rd in rushing yards and 32nd in points, yet they still managed seven wins.

If the Cowboys can so much as improve to league average in all or even most of those categories while also once again sporting a top-notch offense, double-digit wins are attainable.

Taking it a step further, the difference between the Cowboys being just a playoff team and a Super Bowl contender is going to depend on just how big of a leap Dallas' defense can make past average. If Dallas is elite or even just inside top 10 on both sides of the ball, the team will have a legit shot to make serious noise in 2026.