Free-Agent Frenzy by Patriots Monday
What makes New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick great at his job is that he is always willing to adapt. When the league zigs, he zags. That is what made the Patriots dynasty so incredible for two decades. Yes, having quarterback Tom Brady was crucial for that success, but the units the Patriots put on the field always overachieved.
This time last year was much different for Belichick and the Patriots. They struggled down the stretch in 2019 and then waived goodbye to their superstar quarterback. With COVID-19, a bridge quarterback and a bunch of opt-outs, it seemed like a lost season for the Patriots from the get-go. They still finished 7-9, but the offense lacked weapons and the defense couldn’t get after the quarterback. In today’s NFL, that simply isn’t a winning formula.
Fast forward to free agency 2021 and Belichick backed up the Brinks truck to turn his roster on its head. It started even before this week, bringing back Trent Brown through a trade. When healthy, Brown is a high-level right tackle. There is a big question mark because of his injury history, but it was a low-risk deal.
Belichick then traded 33-year-old Marcus Cannon to the Texans in another exchange of picks. The fact that they got any value for Cannon, who opted out this past season, is remarkable. The third big move they made was re-signing quarterback Cam Newton to a team-friendly $5 million deal. Free agency is all about plugging holes and if the Patriots can’t address the quarterback position in the draft, they know the position isn’t going to be a mess. Newton isn’t the same quarterback as he once was, but he won seven games with essentially Jakobi Meyers and Damien Harris. With Newton back in the fold and a lot of cap space, Belichick went to work at the beginning of the negotiating period Monday.
It started with Tennessee Titans tight end Jonnu Smith, who agreed to terms on a reported $50 million contract over four years. That's a lot of money for a tight end, but Smith has breakout written all over him. Smith is a complete player who wasn’t utilized enough in Tennessee. This could end up being an A-plus signing. The Patriots supplemented that with the addition of Chargers tight end Hunter Henry on Tuesday. The Monday deal for Smith was thought to be their big splurge, but it was only the start of a long day for New England. Here is the good and bad from free agency Day 1, Patriots edition:
The caveat is that Belichick is arguably the greatest mind in football history. When it comes to acquiring new talent from other teams, he is a mastermind. Outside of Smith, there was some intrigue with their moves. Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne put up good tape with the 49ers last season and at only $7.5 million a year, he could end up as a steal by 2022. He’ll be a very solid rotational player, with some added upside if the Patriots can get a young quarterback in the 2021 or 2022 drafts.
There is some risk involved and even though Twitter crushed them for it, defensive back Jalen Mills may end up being a solid signing. Not as a cornerback, but if the Patriots are looking to move him to deep free safety, he could excel there. Mills has the skill set for what the Patriots are looking for at that position and he can learn behind Devin McCourty, one of the smartest minds in football. If the move doesn’t work out, all of his guarantees will be gone and the Patriots will never have been forced to put him on the field.
Now with the bad. It starts with wide receiver Nelson Agholor. If a player fumbles or drops passes, good luck playing in New England. Agholor flip-flops every year with which one he struggles with. Last year it was drops, as he had nine, fourth-most in the NFL. He doesn’t move the needle enough as a wide receiver in general. At $11 million over two years, it seems like the Patriots won’t end up getting their value. The good thing is there are no guarantees in this contract, so Belichick could pull the plug quickly.
Defensive tackle Davon Godchaux was their other head-scratcher. He played in only five games last season after suffering a biceps injury and was a non-factor when on the field. His contract is for $16 million over two years with $9 million reportedly guaranteed. That is a lot of money to invest in a player who did very little when on the field in a very similar defense last season. The only aspect that makes this signing glass-half-full is that Belichick saw Godchaux with the Dolphins for four straight years. He may have something up his sleeve.
The last big signing the Patriots made was paying pass-rusher Matthew Judon a whopping $56 million over four years. It was a lot of money and it seemed like the Patriots overpaid for a solid pass rusher, whose best football might not be ahead of him. Judon will most likely have between seven-to-nine sacks a year. He was on an elite Ravens defense that does a phenomenal job of developing players, so it seems as if they overpaid based on lack of talent at the position in free agency.
The real question is whether these signings help bring the Patriots back to playoff contention The simple answer is absolutely not. They are still a middle-of-the-pack team. Belichick tends to hit on free agents, but it takes some time to adjust to the Patriots way.
However, the most important thing that will overshadow everything they do in free agency is what they do in the draft, specifically at quarterback. They need to trade up to acquire one of the top four. If they don’t, they’ll be stuck in the same position as last year, still a .500 team and looking for the heir apparent to Tom Brady.
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