Chances Falcons Win Their 1st Super Bowl among 11 Other Teams that Haven't

The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2026 season in one of their driest stretches in what is an unremarkable history as a franchise. They've failed to have a winning season or make the playoffs since 2017, the second-longest streak in the NFL behind the New York Jets.

The Falcons have never won a Super Bowl, and are joined by 11 other teams with that distinction, and two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski is tasked with getting a talented core group of players over the hump.

NFL Network's Eric Edholm took a look at the 12 teams that haven't won the big prize, and he ranked their chances of getting it done this year. With big questions at quarterback and a new coaching staff, Edholm doesn't like the Falcons' chances despite a team loaded with talented players.

The Falcons check in at No. 9 on the list, ahead of only the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and Miami Dolphins.

Edholm compares the Falcons to the Vikings, No. 8 on his list, who have a discarded veteran in Kyler Murray competing with a J.J. McCarthy, a former first-round draft pick entering his

"Like the Vikings, the Falcons remain in QB purgatory until a winner is declared in the Tua Tagovailoa-Michael Penix Jr. battle. Tagovailoa appears to be the favorite in the race, and he quarterbacked two playoff teams in Miami, but there are health questions about both quarterbacks -- and about the team as a whole," Edholm wrote on NFL Network.

Whether or not Tagovailoa is the favorite remains debatable. Until Penix is given a clean bill of health following November's ACL surgery, he may be the favorite by default. But Penix is participating in the Falcons' offseason programs, including OTAs for the last two weeks, and his mobility looks good, including rollouts.

Edholm rightly points out that new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees will probably need some time to install Stefanski's offense. However, the good news is that the bar was set so low last season with the dysfunction and predictability on offense that an immediate improvement shouldn't be out of the question.

"The Falcons have some elite offensive talent, and the defense could level up," Edholm continued. "The secondary appears to be a strong group, and the reloaded defensive front could be effective, especially if James Pearce Jr. avoids a lengthy suspension. The Falcons might be closer to contention than some believe, but how close they are to a Super Bowl is anyone’s guess now."

And there's the rub.

The variance on this team is huge. They won eight games last season despite glaring deficiencies in certain areas like special teams, in-game management, and third-down offense.

They set a team record with 57 sacks last season and added depth across the entire defense. Losing Kaden Elliss could hurt, but Divine Deablo was a free agent gem last season and will take on a bigger role while Jalon Walker hopefully takes the next step at edge.

Making another Vikings comparison, it's not out of the question that if this team gets plus quarterback play, they could have a Sam Darnold-esque 2024 season when he led the Vikings to a 14-3 record. Darnold had a career renaissance in Minnesota as a bridge quarterback on a cheap contract.

The Vikings fell short in the playoffs in the first round of the playoffs that year, but even getting to the playoffs would be a breath of fresh air in Atlanta.

Tagovailoa and Penix had identical 88.5 passer ratings last season, tied with Kyler Murray (there's that Vikings synergy again) for 25th in the NFL. If the Falcons' quarterback play doesn't improve, it will be another long season, and Atlanta will be in the market for a new quarterback during next April's NFL Draft.

Super Bowl? Yeah, Edholm is probably right.

But NFL Playoffs? Definitely a realistic goal for this team.

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