NFL Draft Analyst Offers Theory on Why Some Quarterbacks are Overdrafted

It has been said far too often in the last decade, but the upcoming NFL Draft will be pivotal for the New York Giants. Although an ill-timed victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 cost the team the No. 1 overall pick, general manager Joe Schoen still has a favorable opportunity to come away with an impressive haul.

Plenty of value lurks in the 2025 class, allowing New York to address multiple needs in April. But the organization must select a quarterback before the three-day extravaganza concludes.

The position has been a source of severe distress for fans and a key reason why the Giants were trapped in the NFC basement this past season.

The front office would be doing a great disservice to the team, fan base, and itself if it did not select a signal-caller. New York must give 2022 NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll the chance to mold a rookie into the next franchise quarterback. The question is, though, when should Schoen do so?

The widespread belief is that the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, the two squads ahead of the Giants in the first-round draft order, will determine how the Giants approach the proceedings.

If Heisman Trophy finalist Cam Ward and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Shedeur Sanders are off the board, New York could wait until Day 2 to snag a quarterback.

However, as NFL.com's Lance Zierlein recently opined, waiting until Day 2 to select a quarterback might not be in the Giants’ best interest.

The amount of QBs drafted per round over the last 10 drafts:
1st: 35
2nd: 6
3rd: 13

With no 5th year option, the 2nd round is a ghost town. If you like a QB but have a 2nd rnd grade on him - push him to 1st. If you're not sure drop him to the 3rd where expectations take a drop
— Lance Zierlein (@LanceZierlein) January 26, 2025

“The amount of quarterbacks drafted per round over the last 10 drafts: 1st: 35, 2nd: 6, 3rd: 13," Zierlein said via his X (formerly Twitter) account.

“With no 5th-year option, the 2nd round is a ghost town. If you like a quarterback but have a 2nd round grade on him, push him to 1st. If you're not sure, drop him to the 3rd, where expectations take a drop."

Although all NFL draft picks receive four-year contracts, those selected in the first round have an option year that the team can exercise if things are going well or decline if they aren’t.

In the case of a quarterback, if the plan is to sit him for most, if not all, of his first season, that means one less year to see him in live action.

But if a team has the fifth-year option that comes with a player being a first-round pick, they can keep the player for another season if the player continues to show growth year after year.

In the main theater, Thursday, April 25, 2024, for the first day of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit. | Mandi Wright / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Will the Giants get bold on Day 1 of the Draft?

As much as the Giants desperately need a franchise quarterback, they are not necessarily in a position to force a pick and overvalue a player, which is how they got into their current predicament in the first place.

There have been some ideas floated by media and draft analysts that the Giants might consider trading up in the first round to ensure they get a quarterback, but we’re not so sure they get that bold.

They could also attempt to trade back into the bottom of the first round, where they might be able to scoop up either Ole Miss pocket passer Jaxson Dart or Alabama’s Jalen Milroe.

There is a growing sentiment that neither Dart nor Milroe is first-round material. While their inconsistencies will weigh heavy on executives and scouts in the lead-up to April 24, one cannot underestimate the powerful influence that quarterback desperation can have on an organization.

If the Giants are enamored with either talent or a potential draft-board riser who is not even on the radar yet, they might have no choice but to take a literal and metaphorical leap of faith. Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have less than three months to figure it out.

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