Can the Jaguars Reach These Big Expectations?

The Jaguars hiring of Liam Coen could have Jacksonville hosting a playoff game in 2025

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates a touchdown scored by running back Tank Bigsby (4) during the third quarter of NFL football matchup Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars edged the Colts on a field goal 37-34. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars could be on the verge of a special season. With Brian Thomas Jr looking to build on a strong rookie campaign under new head coach Liam Coen, Pro Football Focus predicts that the Jaguars will win 11+ games in 2025 and Lawrence will have the best year of his career.

"Before his season ended prematurely, Lawrence posted a 64.5 QB+ in 2024, the second straight season of decline for the former top overall pick. However, Brian Thomas Jr. (87-1,282-10) showed signs of stardom and should help reverse that trend sooner rather than later," wrotePro Football Network's Kyle Soppe.

Sogge points out the Jaguars were ranked sixth in yards after catch in 2025. The six teams ahead of them all made the playoffs. "As you can see, Jacksonville is an outlier, and with the tools to repeat this level of success, a turnaround is certainly possible (the average QB+ for the starter on the six offenses ranking ahead of the Jags was 85.8, 6.3 points ahead of Lawrence’s career-high)."

"This strength could be further highlighted by hiring Liam Coen. Last season, he was the architect that helped Baker Mayfield have a career year — he dialed back Mayfield’s aDOT by 18.6%, and he thrived on those short passes (under 10 air yards):"

• Short pass passer rating: second (112.8, behind only Lamar Jackson)
• Short pass completion percentage: second (79.5%, behind only Tua Tagovailoa)
• Short pass TD%: second (6.8%, behind only Jackson)

"Lawrence’s yards per deep pass have increased each season of his career (8.5 as a rookie, followed by 10.9, 11.4, and 13.0 in his 10 games last year), giving this offense the ability to challenge defense at every level."

Soppe might be stretching it with 11 wins for the Jaguars, but there is something special happening in Duval County. The team could be on the verge of re-establishing their defense as a dominant force and the Jaguars have been successful against their AFC South rivals in years past.

If Coen can win his division games, the Jaguars have a realistic shot at 11 wins but more importantly, they would claim the AFC South over the NFL's wonderkid C.J. Stroud. A big boost for the franchise.

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