5 Biggest Hurdles the Jaguars Face in AFC South Title Run in 2026

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars were AFC South champions a year ago based on the strength of their new coaching staff and a 5-1 record in the division that should have been 6-0. But can they do it again?

We have taken a look at the Jaguars' case to come out on top in the AFC South over the likes of the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. But now we take a look at the flip side of the equation and determine what might be the biggest hurdles the Jaguars might have to clear if they want to repeat as AFC South winners.

The Texans' Defense

will anderso — Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is the most obvious selection, and the most daunting one. The Texans' defense has been fantastic for years, but it took a step toward all-time status last season with efforts that were not all that dissimilar from what we saw the 2017 Jaguars do. Had C.J. Stroud not completely melted down during the playoffs, then the Texans' defense could have pushed them all the way to a Super Bowl appearance -- they were that good.

The Jaguars did find success against the Texans' defense during certain spurts, but nothing that was all that consistent. If the Jaguars are going to defeat the Texans for the AFC South, they will need to be able to score more points than they put on the board in their close win against the Texans last year, and show the ability to close out a game that they failed to do so in their loss.

Nico Collins

Simply put, Nico Collins has become the boogeyman of Duval in recent years. He has recorded 100+ receiving yards in five straight games against the Jaguars, dating all the way back to 2023. In those five games, Collins recorded 42 catches for 614 yards and three touchdowns. If Collins averaged those numbers over 17 games, he would be a 2,000-yard receiver. So yeah, he is pretty good!

The Texans' offense has questions at running back, quarterback, and offensive line, but there are no questions when it comes to Collins. The Jaguars might have the best wide receiver room in the AFC South, but Collins is easily the best receiver in the division today, and he has been able to frequently remind the Jaguars of that fact in recent years. The Jaguars will need Travis Hunter, Montaric Brown and the rest of their secondary to be on their game when these two sides meet this season.

Cam Ward's Next Step

I think the substanial gap between Trevor Lawrence and Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward is a big reason the Jaguars will make light work of the Titans this season. But at the same time, Ward could take an even bigger step than anybody anticipates, and he could become a headache for the Jaguars if that happens. As things stand today, the opposing quarterback situation in the AFC South is weak. If Ward changes that, then the Jaguars will have a few tough games on their hands, even with all of the other issues the Titans are facing entering 2026.

We have seen second-year quarterbacks take big leaps consistently in recent years, from Caleb Williams to Drake Maye to even Lawrence himself a few years ago. If Ward becomes that quarterback this season, then the two easy wins currently circled on the Jaguars' schedule will be tougher than previously anticipated.

Of course, whether Ward actually makes that leap is a fair question. He has the talent, but he had a rough rookie season on a bad roster, and it remains to be seen just how much better their supporting cast has gotten this year despite the Titans pouring a ton of resources into the offense.

The Colts' Desperation

shane steiche — Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen swings his whistle Wednesday, June 10, 2026, as he watches the quarterbacks during minicamp at Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Desperation is a powerful thing, and it is hard to imagine a team more desperate entering the 2026 season than the Indianapolis Colts. It is clear the Colts' brass of head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard are on the hot seat after years of middling results, and the Colts have not won the AFC South since 2014. They have clearly gotten to their last ounce of patience when it comes to results, and their performance this year will determine if they run it back next season.

On one hand, that desperation has forced the Colts into an odd offseason filled with moves that have not exactly moved the needle. On the other hand, the Colts simply have more at stake when these two teams face off this season, and sometimes that is the motivation a team needs to create an upset scenario.

The Jaguars are the better team than the Colts by a healthy margin, they have a better head coach, more talented roster, really everything. But the Colts are certainly more desperate than them, and a desperate football team can often be the most dangerous one to face.

Their Own History

trevor lawrenc — Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks for an opening to pass during the fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. Nfl Jacksonville Jaguars At Tennessee Titans | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Jaguars have only won the AFC South three times since the division was created in 2002: in 2017 behind the NFL's best defense, in 2022 when their 9-8 squad made a rapid second-half comeback to overtake the Tennessee Titans, and last year when the Jaguars managed to just barely scrap by the Texans in the battle for the division.

The last two times the Jaguars won the AFC South, they entered the next season with clear bullseyes on their backs. The 2018 Jaguars fell apart at the seams as the Blake Borltes/Leonard Fournette offense shockingly turned out to be not good enough, while the 2023 Jaguars should have made a playoff run but went 1-5 during the final six weeks of the season and missed the playoffs entirelyt.

There are certainly signs that this Jaguars team looks different than those two, and we should buy into them as legit Super Bowl contenders. But the Jaguars have failed to build on top of their own AFC South success before, so they will have to battle expectations and their own history if they want to prevent it from happening again.

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