Jaguars Know The Magic Number in the AFC South, and Now They Can Make Their Run

For the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South, it will take going on a very specific run over the next 11 weeks.

Oct 18, 2026; London, ENG; From left, Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski, head coach Liam Coen, and tight ends coach Richard Angulo look on during the first half against the Houston Texans at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars are ready to make their run.

The bye week turned everything around for the Jaguars a year ago, and the comparisons to this year can certainly be drawn. Jacksonville was 4-3 and coming off a tough loss in London at last year's bye week, and this year the Jaguars were 4-2 entering their bye and coming off an emotional last-second loss to the Houston Texans in London.

Adding Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline certainly helped, but overall the Jaguars were a different team post-bye last season. Jacksonville went 9-1 after last year's bye week to set themselves up with a 13-4 record, an AFC South title, and a home playoff game.

Now, they will need to make the same thing happen now that they know what the magic number in the AFC South is: 13 wins.

The Magic Number

The math is simple. If the Jaguars go 9-2 over the next 11 weeks, they will win the AFC South. With the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts sitting at 2-5 after Week 7, the Jaguars can ensure an AFC South title with 13 wins ... a number the Colts and Texans can not reach. Now, winning 9-of-11 games is difficult and something most teams do not do over the second-half of a season, but the Jaguars will be coming out of their Week 7 bye hoping to not be like most teams.

It helps that the Jaguars got quite a bit of help from the AFC South in Week 7. The AFC South went 0-3 on Sunday, and the Jaguars' three rivals have just five wins combined this season. The Texans have made runs before, and nothing is ever secured, but the Jaguars' chances of winning the south increased on a Sunday where the Jaguars were at home.

“It helps. It definitely helps. I did keep some eye on some of the opponents that we will be seeing in the future. To see the type of game style that they play and how they're doing," Jaguars cornerback Jourdan Lewis said Monday. "The AFC South helped us. We’re still number one in the division and just trying to make sure that we don't have any skids to where we let anybody get any opportunity to take that from us.”

To ensure the Jaguars avoid those skids and make a run, the Jaguars have a few clear areas to improve. Head coach Liam Coen noted some of these areas Monday, pointing out red-zone penalties on offense, explosive plays allowed through the air on defense, and kickoff and punt coverage units.

Each of these aspects of their team came up big in their lone two losses, especially in the Week 6 loss to the Texans. That is where the Jaguars' bye week comes into play. Last year, the bye week was about improving Trevor Lawrence and the passing game, and the Jaguars did exactly that. Now, their focus moving into Week 8 against the Indianapolis Colts and beyond is clear.

"Anytime you get a little bit of an opportunity to reset, gather your thoughts, also get away from it a little bit. Sometimes absence makes the heart grow fonder in ways, and no different in football. I couldn't sleep last night," Coen said Monday.

"Excited about getting back in the building and getting back with these guys and attacking these next 11 games together and really getting after it. It also came a little earlier this year than last, if you will, right, in terms of the way it played out and how many games we've played. But six weeks in and you see all the stuff that happens on any given Sunday, specifically within our division, it should only allow you to have a mindset and mentality to come in here and attack this thing with a division game up this week.”

The Jaguars have one of the NFL's easier schedules over the next 11 weeks, facing the Colts and Titans twice, the 2-5 Texans once more, the Washington Commanders, and some other very winnable games against the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The toughest game left looks to be the Chicago Bears in Week 13.

But the Jaguars, more than anything, need to avoid those skids that Lewis mentioned. They can't take anything for granted, and they are still facing their own injury questions and pre-trade deadline chatter. It is, however, clear what it will take for the Jaguars to reach their goals.

Nine more wins, and the Jaguars will play a playoff football game in Jacksonville. It is time for the Jaguars to make their run.